Reliability Evaluation of Renewable Power Systems through Distribution Network Power Outage Modelling

Fitsum Salehu Kebede, Jean-Christophe Olivier, Salvy Bourguet and Mohamed Machmoum
Additional contact information
Fitsum Salehu Kebede: Laboratoire IREENA, Université de Nantes, 37 Boulevard de l’Université BP 406, 44602 Saint-Nazaire, France
Jean-Christophe Olivier: Laboratoire IREENA, Université de Nantes, 37 Boulevard de l’Université BP 406, 44602 Saint-Nazaire, France
Salvy Bourguet: Laboratoire IREENA, Université de Nantes, 37 Boulevard de l’Université BP 406, 44602 Saint-Nazaire, France
Mohamed Machmoum: Laboratoire IREENA, Université de Nantes, 37 Boulevard de l’Université BP 406, 44602 Saint-Nazaire, France

Energies, 2021, vol. 14, issue 11, 1-25

Abstract: Intermittent power interruptions and blackouts with long outage durations are very common, especially on weak distribution grids such as in developing countries. This paper proposes a hybrid photovoltaic (PV)-battery-system sizing optimization through a genetic algorithm to address the reliability in fragile grids measured by the loss of power supply probability ( LPSP ) index. Recorded historical outage data from a real stochastic grid in Ethiopia and measured customer load is used. The resulting hybrid-system Pareto solutions give the flexibility for customers/power utilities to choose appropriate sizes based on the required reliability level. To evaluate the sizing solutions’ robustness, this work considers and compares grid outage modeling through two different approaches. The first is a Markov model, developed to be minimally implemented with limited outage data available. The second is a Weibull model, commonly used to describe extreme phenomena and failure analysis. It is more faithful in reproducing the dispersion of outage events. Using these models, the effectiveness and performance of the PV-battery system is verified on a large number of simulated outage scenarios, to estimate the real performance of the optimized design. It leads to a more accurate evaluation of the behavior of a renewable power system to a weak and unreliable electrical grid.

Keywords: distributed generation; distribution network; grid outage/interruption; outage prediction; PV-battery; reliability modeling; renewable energy; Weibull/Markov model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/11/3225/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/11/3225/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:11:p:3225-:d:566595

Access Statistics for this article

Energies is currently edited by Ms. Agatha Cao

More articles in Energies from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().