Fossil Energy in the Framework of Sustainable Development: Analysis of Prospects and Development of Forecast Scenarios

Yuriy Leonidovich Zhukovskiy, Daria Evgenievna Batueva, Alexandra Dmitrievna Buldysko, Bernard Gil and Valeriia Vladimirovna Starshaia
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Yuriy Leonidovich Zhukovskiy: Educational Research Center for Digital Technologies, Saint Petersburg Mining University, 2, 21st Line, 191106 Saint Petersburg, Russia
Daria Evgenievna Batueva: Educational Research Center for Digital Technologies, Saint Petersburg Mining University, 2, 21st Line, 191106 Saint Petersburg, Russia
Alexandra Dmitrievna Buldysko: Educational Research Center for Digital Technologies, Saint Petersburg Mining University, 2, 21st Line, 191106 Saint Petersburg, Russia
Bernard Gil: Laboratoire Charles Coulomb UMR 5221, CNRS-Université de Montpellier, 34095 Montpellier, France
Valeriia Vladimirovna Starshaia: Educational Research Center for Digital Technologies, Saint Petersburg Mining University, 2, 21st Line, 191106 Saint Petersburg, Russia

Energies, 2021, vol. 14, issue 17, 1-28

Abstract: In the next 20 years, the fossil energy must become a guarantor of the sustainable development of the energy sector for future generations. Significant threats represent hurdles in this transition. This study identified current global trends in the energy sector and the prospects for the development of energy until 2035. The importance of risk assessment in scenario forecasting based on expert judgments was proven. Three contrasting scenarios, #StayHome, #StayAlone, and #StayEffective, for the development of fossil energy, all based on comprehensive analysis of global risks by expert survey and factor analysis, were developed. It was concluded that fossil energy is mandatory with integration of advanced technologies at every stage of the production of traditional energy and of renewable energy as an integral part of the modern energy sector. Based on the results of the study, nine ambitious programs for the development of sustainable energy are presented. They require the creation and the utilization of a single interactive digital platform adapted to this purpose. It is a passport mandatory for the flexible interaction of energy production, its transmission, and its consumption in the perspective of having a future sustainable, reliable, and secured energy sector.

Keywords: sustainable energy development; fossil energy; renewable energy sources; digital technologies; energy transition; factor analysis; analysis of the scenario (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (11)

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