Changes in Thornthwaite Moisture Index and Reactive Soil Movements under Current and Future Climate Scenarios—A Case Study

Md Rajibul Karim, Md Mizanur Rahman, Khoi Nguyen, Donald Cameron, Asif Iqbal and Isaac Ahenkorah
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Md Rajibul Karim: UniSA STEM, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes Campus, Adelaide, SA 5095, Australia
Md Mizanur Rahman: UniSA STEM, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes Campus, Adelaide, SA 5095, Australia
Khoi Nguyen: UniSA STEM, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes Campus, Adelaide, SA 5095, Australia
Donald Cameron: UniSA STEM, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes Campus, Adelaide, SA 5095, Australia
Asif Iqbal: UniSA STEM, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes Campus, Adelaide, SA 5095, Australia
Isaac Ahenkorah: UniSA STEM, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes Campus, Adelaide, SA 5095, Australia

Energies, 2021, vol. 14, issue 20, 1-18

Abstract: Expansive soils go through significant volume changes due to seasonal moisture variations resulting in ground movements. The ground movement related problems are likely to worsen in the future due to climate change. It is important to understand and incorporate likely future changes in design to ensure the resilience of structures built on such soils. However, there has been a limited amount of work quantifying the effect of climate change on expansive soils movement and related behaviour of structures. The Thornthwaite Moisture Index (TMI) is one of the commonly used climate classifiers in quantifying the effect of atmospheric boundary on soil behaviour. Using the long-term weather data and predicted future changes under different emission scenarios, a series of TMI maps are developed for South Australia. Potential changes in ground movement are then estimated for a selected area using a simplified methodology where the effect of future climate is captured through changes in TMI. Results indicate that South Australia is likely to face a significant reduction in TMI under all emission scenarios considered in this study. The changes in TMI will lead to a considerable increase in potential ground movement which will influence the behaviour of structures built on them and in some areas may lead to premature failure if not considered in the design.

Keywords: expansive soils; ground movement; suction depth; climate change; Thornthwaite Moisture Index (TMI) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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