Optimization of Electric Transformer Operation Through Load Estimation Based on the K-Means Algorithm

Pedro Torres-Bermeo, José Varela-Aldás, Kevin López-Eugenio, Nancy Velasco and Guillermo Palacios-Navarro ()
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Pedro Torres-Bermeo: Centro de Investigación MIST, Facultad de Ingenierías, Universidad Tecnológica Indoamérica, Ambato 180103, Ecuador
José Varela-Aldás: Centro de Investigación MIST, Facultad de Ingenierías, Universidad Tecnológica Indoamérica, Ambato 180103, Ecuador
Kevin López-Eugenio: Centro de Investigación MIST, Facultad de Ingenierías, Universidad Tecnológica Indoamérica, Ambato 180103, Ecuador
Nancy Velasco: Facultad de Informática y Electrónica, Escuela Superior Politécnica de Chimborazo (ESPOCH), Riobamba 060155, Ecuador
Guillermo Palacios-Navarro: Department of Electronic Engineering and Communications, University of Zaragoza, 44003 Teruel, Spain

Energies, 2025, vol. 18, issue 14, 1-23

Abstract: This study presents an innovative methodology to optimize the operation of distribution transformers through the estimation of hourly load curves, aimed at minimizing technical losses due to oversizing, particularly in systems lacking advanced metering infrastructure. The proposed approach combines clustering techniques, K-Means with DTW, to identify representative daily consumption patterns and a supervised model based on LightGBM to estimate hourly load curves for unmetered transformers, using customer characteristics as input. These estimated curves are integrated into a process that calculates technical losses, both no-load and load losses, for different transformer sizes, selecting the optimal rating that minimizes losses without compromising demand. Empirical validation showed accuracy levels of 95.6%, 95.29%, and 98.14% at an individual transformer, feeder, and a complete electrical system with 16,864 transformers, respectively. The application of the methodology to a real distribution system revealed a potential annual energy savings of 3004 MWh, equivalent to an estimated economic reduction of 150,238 USD.

Keywords: distribution transformers; loadability; predictive modeling; DTW with K-Means; LightGBM (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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