Comparative Performance Analysis of Machine Learning-Based Annual and Seasonal Approaches for Power Output Prediction in Combined Cycle Power Plants

Asiye Aslan () and Ali Osman Büyükköse
Additional contact information
Asiye Aslan: Electricity and Energy Department, Gönen Vocational School, Bandırma Onyedi Eylül University, Balıkesir 10900, Turkey
Ali Osman Büyükköse: Enerjisa Enerji Uretim Inc., Istanbul 34746, Turkey

Energies, 2025, vol. 18, issue 19, 1-28

Abstract: This study develops an innovative framework that utilizes real-time operational data to forecast electrical power output (EPO) in Combined Cycle Power Plants (CCPPs) by employing a temperature segmentation-based modeling approach. Instead of using a single general prediction model, which is commonly seen in the literature, three separate prediction models were created to explicitly capture the nonlinear effect of ambient temperature (AT) on efficiency (AT < 12 °C, 12 °C ≤ AT < 20 °C, AT ≥ 20 °C). Linear Ridge, Medium Tree, Rational Quadratic Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), Support Vector Machine (SVM) Kernel, and Neural Network methods were applied. In the modeling, the variables considered were AT, relative humidity (RH), atmospheric pressure (AP), and condenser vacuum (V). The highest performance was achieved with the Rational Quadratic GPR method. In this approach, the weighted average Mean Absolute Error (MAE) was found to be 2.225 with seasonal segmentation, while it was calculated as 2.417 in the non-segmented model. By applying seasonal prediction models, the hourly EPO prediction error was reduced by 192 kW, achieving a 99.77% average convergence of the predicted power output values to the actual values. This demonstrates the contribution of the proposed approach to enhancing operational efficiency.

Keywords: ambient conditions; combined cycle power plant; electrical production; forecasting; neural network; regression analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/18/19/5110/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/18/19/5110/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jeners:v:18:y:2025:i:19:p:5110-:d:1758356

Access Statistics for this article

Energies is currently edited by Ms. Cassie Shen

More articles in Energies from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().