Dynamic Risk Assessment of Equipment Operation in Coalbed Methane Gathering Stations Based on the Combination of DBN and CSM Assessment Models

Jian Li, Chaoke Shi, Xiang Li, Dashuang Zeng, Yuchen Zhang, Xiaojie Yu, Shuang Yan () and Yuntao Li
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Jian Li: China National Petroleum Corporation Coalbed Methane Company Limited, Linfen 041000, China
Chaoke Shi: China National Petroleum Corporation Coalbed Methane Company Limited, Linfen 041000, China
Xiang Li: China National Petroleum Corporation Coalbed Methane Company Limited, Linfen 041000, China
Dashuang Zeng: China National Petroleum Corporation-Liaohe Oilfield Branch, Panjin 124000, China
Yuchen Zhang: China National Petroleum Corporation Coalbed Methane Company Limited, Linfen 041000, China
Xiaojie Yu: China National Petroleum Corporation Coalbed Methane Company Limited, Linfen 041000, China
Shuang Yan: School of Safety and Marine Engineering, China University of Petroleum (Beijing), Beijing 102249, China
Yuntao Li: School of Safety and Marine Engineering, China University of Petroleum (Beijing), Beijing 102249, China

Energies, 2025, vol. 18, issue 19, 1-19

Abstract: The operational risks of equipment in coalbed methane (CBM) gathering stations exhibit dynamic characteristics. To address this, a dynamic risk assessment method based on Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) is proposed for CBM station equipment. Additionally, a comprehensive safety management evaluation model is established for gathering station equipment. This approach enables accurate risk assessment and effective implementation of safety management in CBM gathering stations. This method primarily consists of three core components: risk factor identification, dynamic risk analysis, and comprehensive safety management evaluation. First, the Bow-tie model is applied to comprehensively identify risk factors associated with station equipment. Next, a DBN is constructed based on the identified risks, and Markov theory is employed to determine the state transition matrix. Finally, a Comprehensive Safety Management (CSM) evaluation model for gathering station equipment is established. The feasibility of the proposed method is validated through case study applications. The results indicate that during the operation of equipment at CBM gathering stations, priority should be given to strengthening maintenance for medium-hole and enhancing prevention and emergency measures for jet fires. Temperature-controlled spiral-wound heat exchangers, skid-mounted circulating pumps, and pipelines have been identified as critical factors affecting accident occurrence at CBM gathering stations. Enhanced daily inspection and maintenance of this equipment should be implemented. Furthermore, compared to other safety evaluation indicators, the Emergency Preparedness and Response indicator has the most significant impact on the operational safety of CBM gathering station equipment. It requires high-priority attention, thorough implementation of relevant measures, and continuous improvement through targeted actions.

Keywords: safety science and engineering; dynamic risk assessment of equipment operation; Dynamic Bayesian Network; bow-tie model; comprehensive evaluation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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