Optimization of an Off-Grid PV System with Respect to the Loss of Load Probability Value

Zvonimir Šimić, Marinko Barukčić, Goran Knežević and Danijel Topić ()
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Zvonimir Šimić: Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Computer Science and Information Technology Osijek, Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek, 31000 Osijek, Croatia
Marinko Barukčić: Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Computer Science and Information Technology Osijek, Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek, 31000 Osijek, Croatia
Goran Knežević: Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Computer Science and Information Technology Osijek, Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek, 31000 Osijek, Croatia
Danijel Topić: Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Computer Science and Information Technology Osijek, Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek, 31000 Osijek, Croatia

Energies, 2025, vol. 18, issue 19, 1-19

Abstract: In this paper, a method for finding the optimal size of an off-grid photovoltaic (PV) system regarding the Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) value is proposed. The proposed method is applied to an off-grid PV system in a scenario where an electricity supply needs to be provided during three summer months. According to the simulation results, 11 PV modules and 11 batteries are required with 0% LOLP. An increase in LOLP to 1% results in 10 PV modules and 7 batteries, and a 24.9% cost reduction. With 5% LOLP, the cost reduction is 39.3%, and with 10% LOLP, it is 49.5%. The use of less expensive batteries also contributes to cost reduction. With the modification of electricity consumption, one combination can be suitable for 4% lower LOLP, and the cost can be reduced to up to 7%. It can be concluded that the required increase in LOLP value leads to a decrease in the number of required PV modules and batteries and to the use of less expensive battery technologies, which then leads to cost reduction. Additionally, with the modification of electricity consumption, the amount of power deficit can be reduced, which makes one combination suitable for lower LOLP and also leads to a further system cost decrease. Lower system costs can encourage more people to invest in an off-grid PV system in locations with occasional consumption or consumption over only a few months. The cost reduction strongly depends on how willing users are to not have all their electricity demands met.

Keywords: batteries; PV modules; loss of load probability; off-grid PV system; optimal size (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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