Discourse vs. Decarbonisation: Tracking the Alignment Between EU Climate Rhetoric and National Energy Patterns

Olena Pavlova, Oksana Liashenko (), Kostiantyn Pavlov (), Marek Rutkowski, Artur Kornatka, Tetiana Vlasenko and Mykola Halei
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Olena Pavlova: Faculty of Management, AGH University of Kraków, A. Mickiewicza Ave. 30, 30-059 Kraków, Poland
Oksana Liashenko: Faculty of Economics and Management, Lesya Ukrainka Volyn National University, Voli Ave. 13, 43025 Lutsk, Ukraine
Kostiantyn Pavlov: Faculty of Economics and Management, Lesya Ukrainka Volyn National University, Voli Ave. 13, 43025 Lutsk, Ukraine
Marek Rutkowski: Faculty of Administration and Social Sciences, Lublin Academy of WSEI, Projektowa 4, 20-209 Lublin, Poland
Artur Kornatka: Faculty of Social Sciences and Informatics, School of Business, National-Louis University in Nowy Sącza, Grunwaldzka 17, 33-300 Nowy Sącz, Poland
Tetiana Vlasenko: Department of Management, Academy of Silesia, ul. Rolna 43, 40-555 Katowice, Poland
Mykola Halei: Medical Faculty, Lesya Ukrainka Volyn National University, Voli Ave. 13, 43025 Lutsk, Ukraine

Energies, 2025, vol. 18, issue 19, 1-16

Abstract: This study examines the alignment between the European Union’s climate policy rhetoric and the actual fossil fuel consumption behaviours of its Member States. By combining long-term and short-term time-series data with machine learning classification techniques, the analysis captures dynamic national energy trends and decarbonisation signals. Key innovations include the use of slope acceleration metrics and the identification of label reversals to detect volatility, acceleration, or stagnation in transition trajectories. The results show that, while some countries such as France and Denmark demonstrate consistent structural progress, others show deceleration or reversal, particularly in the use of gas and liquid fuels. This indicates that the relationship between EU-level policy ambition and national implementation is asymmetric and conditionally aligned. This study concludes that ongoing empirical monitoring and targeted diagnostics are essential to prevent conflating symbolic commitments with material change, and provides practical insights for improving climate policy accountability and adaptability across the EU.

Keywords: EU climate governance; fossil fuel transition; machine learning; slope acceleration; energy consumption trends; policy implementation gap; label reversals; energy transition monitoring (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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