Optimizing Local Energy Systems Through Bottom-Up Modelling: A TIMES-Based Analysis for the Municipality of Tito, Southern Italy

Carmelina Cosmi (), Ikechukwu Ikwegbu Ibe, Antonio D’Angola and Senatro Di Leo
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Carmelina Cosmi: National Research Council (CNR), Institute of Methodologies for Environmental Analysis (IMAA), 85050 Tito Scalo, Italy
Ikechukwu Ikwegbu Ibe: National Research Council (CNR), Institute of Methodologies for Environmental Analysis (IMAA), 85050 Tito Scalo, Italy
Antonio D’Angola: Department of Engineering, University of Basilicata, 85100 Potenza, Italy
Senatro Di Leo: National Research Council (CNR), Institute of Methodologies for Environmental Analysis (IMAA), 85050 Tito Scalo, Italy

Energies, 2025, vol. 18, issue 22, 1-42

Abstract: The energy transition is an essential process for mitigating the effects of climate change in a global context where recent conflicts threaten energy security. Municipalities play an increasing role in achieving the decarbonization targets set at a national level, but they need effective tools to identify the most appropriate actions and policies for achieving quantitative targets. Among the tools available, energy models allow us to represent the evolution of the energy system under different boundary conditions or constraints and defining the least-cost pathways for sustainable development. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the usefulness of a bottom-up modeling approach in the framework of the ETSAP TIMES model generator to represent and optimize the local-scale energy system of the city of Tito in Southern Italy, with a particular focus on the residential and tertiary sectors. The optimization of a Business-as-Usual reference scenario over a thirty-year time horizon (2020–2050) shows an initial situation based on the prevalent use of natural gas. The sensitivity analysis carried out by gradually increasing the cost of natural gas and providing subsidies for the purchase of heat pumps shows a 92% reduction in fossil fuel consumption and a 60% for CO 2 emissions as early as 2030.

Keywords: energy transition; climate change; TIMES model; renewable energy; decarbonization; sensitivity analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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