Photovoltaic Output Power Estimation and Baseline Prediction Approach for a Residential Distribution Network with Behind-the-Meter Systems

Keda Pan, Changhong Xie, Chun Sing Lai, Dongxiao Wang and Loi Lei Lai
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Keda Pan: Department of Control Engineering, School of Automation, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China
Changhong Xie: Department of Electrical Engineering, School of Automation, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China
Chun Sing Lai: Department of Electrical Engineering, School of Automation, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China
Dongxiao Wang: Department of Electrical Engineering, School of Automation, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China
Loi Lei Lai: Department of Control Engineering, School of Automation, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China

Forecasting, 2020, vol. 2, issue 4, 1-18

Abstract: Considering that most of the photovoltaic (PV) data are behind-the-meter (BTM), there is a great challenge to implement effective demand response projects and make a precise customer baseline (CBL) prediction. To solve the problem, this paper proposes a data-driven PV output power estimation approach using only net load data, temperature data, and solar irradiation data. We first obtain the relationship between delta actual load and delta temperature by calculating the delta net load from matching the net load of irradiation for an approximate day with the least squares method. Then we match and make a difference of the net load with similar electricity consumption behavior to establish the relationship between delta PV output power and delta irradiation. Finally, we get the PV output power and implement PV-load decoupling by modifying the relationship between delta PV and delta irradiation. The case studies verify the effectiveness of the approach and it provides an important reference to perform PV-load decoupling and CBL prediction in a residential distribution network with BTM PV systems.

Keywords: PV output power estimation; PV-load decoupling; behind-the-meter PV; baseline prediction (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: A1 B4 C0 C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C8 M0 Q2 Q3 Q4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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