Prevalence and Economic Costs of Absenteeism in an Aging Population—A Quasi-Stochastic Projection for Germany

Patrizio Vanella, Christina Benita Wilke and Doris Söhnlein
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Patrizio Vanella: Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research, Epidemiology Department, 38124 Brunswick, Germany
Christina Benita Wilke: Chair of Economics, Faculty of Economics, FOM University of Applied Sciences, Hochschulzentrum Bremen, 28359 Bremen, Germany
Doris Söhnlein: Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Forecasts and Macroeconomic Analyses Department, 90478 Nürnberg, Germany

Forecasting, 2022, vol. 4, issue 1, 1-23

Abstract: Demographic change is leading to the aging of German society. As long as the baby boom cohorts are still of working age, the working population will also age—and decline as soon as this baby boom generation gradually reaches retirement age. At the same time, there has been a trend toward increasing absenteeism (times of inability to work) in companies since the zero years, with the number of days of absence increasing with age. We present a novel stochastic forecast approach that combines population forecasting with forecasts of labor force participation trends, considering epidemiological aspects. For this, we combine a stochastic Monte Carlo-based cohort-component forecast of the population with projections of labor force participation rates and morbidity rates. This article examines the purely demographic effect on the economic costs associated with such absenteeism due to the inability to work. Under expected future employment patterns and constant morbidity patterns, absenteeism is expected to be close to 5 percent by 2050 relative to 2020, associated with increasing economic costs of almost 3 percent. Our results illustrate how strongly the pronounced baby boom/baby bust phenomenon determines demographic development in Germany in the midterm.

Keywords: cohort-component method; multivariate methods; time series analysis; Monte Carlo methods; stochastic forecasting; demography; statistical epidemiology; labor market research; health economics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: A1 B4 C0 C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C8 M0 Q2 Q3 Q4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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