Examining Factors That Affect Movie Gross Using Gaussian Copula Marginal Regression

Joshua Eklund and Jong-Min Kim
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Joshua Eklund: Computer Science Discipline, Division of Science and Mathematics, University of Minnesota-Morris, Morris, MN 56267, USA
Jong-Min Kim: Statistics Discipline, Division of Science and Mathematics, University of Minnesota-Morris, Morris, MN 56267, USA

Forecasting, 2022, vol. 4, issue 3, 1-14

Abstract: In this research, we investigate the relationship between a movie’s gross and its budget, year of release, season of release, genre, and rating. The movie data used in this research are severely skewed to the right, resulting in the problems of nonlinearity, non-normal distribution, and non-constant variance of the error terms. To overcome these difficulties, we employ a Gaussian copula marginal regression (GCMR) model after adjusting the gross and budget variables for inflation using a consumer price index. An analysis of the data found that year of release, budget, season of release, genre, and rating were all statistically significant predictors of movie gross. Specifically, one unit increases in budget and year were associated with an increase in movie gross. G movies were found to gross more than all other kinds of movies (PG, PG-13, R, and Other). Movies released in the fall were found to gross the least compared to the other three seasons. Finally, action movies were found to gross more than biography, comedy, crime, and other movie genres, but gross less than adventure, animation, drama, fantasy, horror, and mystery movies.

Keywords: movie; gross; budget; inflation; Gaussian copula; regression (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: A1 B4 C0 C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C8 M0 Q2 Q3 Q4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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