Day Ahead Electric Load Forecast: A Comprehensive LSTM-EMD Methodology and Several Diverse Case Studies

Michael Wood (), Emanuele Ogliari, Alfredo Nespoli, Travis Simpkins and Sonia Leva
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Michael Wood: Department of Energy, Politecnico di Milano, Via Lambruschini 4a, 20156 Milan, Italy
Emanuele Ogliari: Department of Energy, Politecnico di Milano, Via Lambruschini 4a, 20156 Milan, Italy
Alfredo Nespoli: Department of Energy, Politecnico di Milano, Via Lambruschini 4a, 20156 Milan, Italy
Travis Simpkins: muGrid Analyics LLC., 14143 Denver West Parkway, Suite 100, Golden, CO 80433, USA
Sonia Leva: Department of Energy, Politecnico di Milano, Via Lambruschini 4a, 20156 Milan, Italy

Forecasting, 2023, vol. 5, issue 1, 1-18

Abstract: Optimal behind-the-meter energy management often requires a day-ahead electric load forecast capable of learning non-linear and non-stationary patterns, due to the spatial disaggregation of loads and concept drift associated with time-varying physics and behavior. There are many promising machine learning techniques in the literature, but black box models lack explainability and therefore confidence in the models’ robustness can’t be achieved without thorough testing on data sets with varying and representative statistical properties. Therefore this work adopts and builds on some of the highest-performing load forecasting tools in the literature, which are Long Short-Term Memory recurrent networks, Empirical Mode Decomposition for feature engineering, and k-means clustering for outlier detection, and tests a combined methodology on seven different load data sets from six different load sectors. Forecast test set results are benchmarked against a seasonal naive model and SARIMA. The resultant skill scores range from −6.3% to 73%, indicating that the methodology adopted is often but not exclusively effective relative to the benchmarks.

Keywords: electric load; forecasting; neural networks; LSTM; EMD; industrial; commercial (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: A1 B4 C0 C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C8 M0 Q2 Q3 Q4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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