Variation in the Distribution of Four Cacti Species Due to Climate Change in Chihuahua, Mexico

Leonor Cortes, Irma Domínguez, Toutcha Lebgue, Oscar Viramontes, Alicia Melgoza, Carmelo Pinedo and Javier Camarillo
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Leonor Cortes: Facultad de Zootecnia y Ecología, Universidad Autónoma de Chihuahua, Periférico R. Almada Km 1, Chihuahua, Chih. 31000, Mexico
Irma Domínguez: Facultad de Zootecnia y Ecología, Universidad Autónoma de Chihuahua, Periférico R. Almada Km 1, Chihuahua, Chih. 31000, Mexico
Toutcha Lebgue: Facultad de Zootecnia y Ecología, Universidad Autónoma de Chihuahua, Periférico R. Almada Km 1, Chihuahua, Chih. 31000, Mexico
Oscar Viramontes: Facultad de Contaduría y Administración, Universidad Autónoma de Chihuahua, Circuito Universitario #1, Nuevo Campus Universitario, Chihuahua, Chih. 31000, Mexico
Alicia Melgoza: Facultad de Zootecnia y Ecología, Universidad Autónoma de Chihuahua, Periférico R. Almada Km 1, Chihuahua, Chih. 31000, Mexico
Carmelo Pinedo: Facultad de Zootecnia y Ecología, Universidad Autónoma de Chihuahua, Periférico R. Almada Km 1, Chihuahua, Chih. 31000, Mexico
Javier Camarillo: Facultad de Zootecnia y Ecología, Universidad Autónoma de Chihuahua, Periférico R. Almada Km 1, Chihuahua, Chih. 31000, Mexico

IJERPH, 2013, vol. 11, issue 1, 1-13

Abstract: This study is about four cacti species in the state of Chihuahua, ( Coryphantha macromeris , Mammillaria lasiacantha , Echinocereus dasyacanthus and Ferocactus wislizenii ). Geographic distribution was inferred with MaxEnt. Projection was estimated under three scenarios simulated from IPCC (A2, B1 and A1B) and four periods (2000, 2020, 2050 and 2080) with 19 climatic variables. MaxEnt projects a species decrease in 2020 under scenario A2, increasing in the following years. In 2080 all species, except E. dasyacanthus, will occupy a larger area than their current one. Scenario B1 projected for 2050 a decrease for all species, and in 2080 all species except E. dasyacanthus will increase their area. With A1B, C. macromeris decreases 27% from 2020 to 2050. E. dasyacanthus increases from 2020 to 2050 and decreases 73% from 2020 to 2080. M. lasiacantha decreases 13% from 2020 to 2080 and F. wislizenii will increase 13% from 2020 to 2080. Some species will remain stable on their areas despite climate changes, and other species may be affected under the conditions of the A1B scenario. It is important to continue with studies which give a broader perspective about the consequences of climate change, thus enabling decision-making about resource management.

Keywords: MaxEnt; modelation; cacti; climatic change; Coryphantha macromeris; Mammillaria lasiacantha; Echinocereus dasyacanthus; Ferocactus wislizenii; distribution (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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