Modeling and Preventive Measures of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD) in China

Yong Li, Jinhui Zhang and Xinan Zhang
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Yong Li: School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huazhong Normal University, No. 152 Luo Yu Road, Wuhan 430079, China
Jinhui Zhang: School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huazhong Normal University, No. 152 Luo Yu Road, Wuhan 430079, China
Xinan Zhang: School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huazhong Normal University, No. 152 Luo Yu Road, Wuhan 430079, China

IJERPH, 2014, vol. 11, issue 3, 1-10

Abstract: This paper concentrates on the HFMD data of China from March 2009 to December 2012. We set up a mathematical model to fit those data with the goodness of fit and obtain the optimal parameter values of the model. By the Chi-square test of statistical inference, the optimal parameter values of the model are reasonable. We obtained the basic reproductive number of the disease for each year, and it is larger than 1. Thus, we conclude that HFMD will persist in China under the current conditions, so we investigate the preventive measures to control the HFMD. If the preventive measures proposed in our paper were implemented, HFMD would be controlled quickly and the number of infections would decline rapidly over a period of time.

Keywords: HFMD; the basic reproductive number; Chi-square test; goodness of fit (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I I1 I3 Q Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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