An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Global Risk Sentiment, Gold Prices, and Interest Rate Differentials on Exchange Rate Dynamics in South Africa

Palesa Milliscent Lefatsa, Simiso Msomi (), Hilary Tinotenda Muguto, Lorraine Muguto and Paul-Francios Muzindutsi
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Palesa Milliscent Lefatsa: School of Commerce, College of Law & Management Studies, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban 3629, South Africa
Simiso Msomi: School of Commerce, College of Law & Management Studies, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban 3629, South Africa
Hilary Tinotenda Muguto: School of Commerce, College of Law & Management Studies, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban 3629, South Africa
Lorraine Muguto: School of Commerce, College of Law & Management Studies, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban 3629, South Africa
Paul-Francios Muzindutsi: School of Commerce, College of Law & Management Studies, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban 3629, South Africa

IJFS, 2025, vol. 13, issue 3, 1-21

Abstract: Exchange rate volatility poses significant challenges for emerging markets, influencing trade balances, inflation, and capital flows. South Africa’s Rand is particularly vulnerable to global risk sentiment, gold price fluctuations, and interest rate differentials, yet prior studies often analyse these factors in isolation. This study integrates them within an autoregressive distributed lag framework, using monthly data from 2005 to 2023 to capture both short-term fluctuations and long-term equilibrium effects. The findings confirm that higher global risk sentiment triggers immediate Rand depreciation, driven by capital outflows to safe-haven assets. Conversely, rising gold prices and favourable interest rate differentials stabilise the Rand, strengthening trade balances and attracting capital inflows. These results underscore the interconnected nature of global financial conditions and exchange rate movements. This study highlights the importance of economic diversification, foreign reserve accumulation, and proactive monetary policies in mitigating currency instability in emerging markets.

Keywords: exchange rates; global risk sentiment; gold prices; interest rate differentials; ARDL (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F2 F3 F41 F42 G1 G2 G3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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