Assessing the Impact of Land Conversion on Carbon Stocks and GHG Emissions

Ima Ituen and Baoxin Hu ()
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Ima Ituen: Department of Earth & Space Science & Engineering, York University, Toronto, ON M3J 1P3, Canada
Baoxin Hu: Department of Earth & Space Science & Engineering, York University, Toronto, ON M3J 1P3, Canada

Land, 2024, vol. 13, issue 8, 1-31

Abstract: With the recent thrust to convert forests in Ontario’s Clay Belt to agricultural land, a vital need arises to assess the attendant effects on carbon and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This paper examines the possible effect of land conversion on soil organic carbon and GHG emissions within a study area in Northern Ontario, Canada, during the next two decades under different land management schemes. The study established a framework to conduct simulations with the DNDC model for agricultural lands and the CBM for forested areas. The methodology involves a unique change detection method for models’ land cover and disturbance inputs. The work highlights the improvement in carbon simulation accuracy from better inputs to carbon models. Furthermore, it addresses modalities to ensure fewer uncertainties are introduced while merging data from multiple geospatial data sources. The simulations demonstrated that the carbon sequestration potential in the forests was almost double the soil organic carbon accumulation in the agricultural lands. Validations done for the estimation of carbon sequestered included comparisons of the carbon model outputs from field survey data from 2018–2021. In most sites, the carbon amounts from the computer models compared to those from the field survey, within limits of error. The average uncertainties in GHG emissions ranged from ~0.5% to 12.8%.

Keywords: carbon modeling; carbon sequestration; land conversion; CBM-CFS3; DNDC; uncertainty analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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