Projections of Urban Land Under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways—A Case Study of Yangtze River Delta Region

Hailan Wu, Buda Su (), Tong Jiang (), Runhong Xu, Zhibo Dong and Jinlong Huang
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Hailan Wu: State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management, School of Geographical Science, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
Buda Su: State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management, School of Geographical Science, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
Tong Jiang: Key Laboratory for Climate Risk and Urban-Rural Smart Governance, School of Geography, Jiangsu Second Normal University, Nanjing 210013, China
Runhong Xu: School of Geographical Science, Qinghai Normal University, Xining 810008, China
Zhibo Dong: State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management, School of Geographical Science, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
Jinlong Huang: State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management, School of Geographical Science, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China

Land, 2025, vol. 14, issue 10, 1-21

Abstract: Rapid socioeconomic development has continuously driven urban land expansion at the expense of other land types, leading to significant changes in land use and environment. However, existing studies still lack fine-resolution, long-term projections of urban land. Using seven periods of land use data from 1990 to 2020, this study projects urban land in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region under the framework of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). A multiple linear regression model and the land use change scenario simulation model (GeoSOS-FLUS) were employed to make projection at a high spatial resolution of 1 km. The findings are as follows: (1) From 1990 to 2020, the rate of urban land expansion in the study area showed a pattern of initial acceleration followed by deceleration, with the average annual expansion rate decreasing from 1.36 × 10 3 km 2 to 0.24 × 10 3 km 2 . The center of gravity shifted toward the southeast. (2) Future urban land expansion is projected to increase by 14 × 10 3 km 2 (SSP3) to 48 × 10 3 km 2 (SSP5). The northern and central parts of the region will experience more significant growth, and the center of gravity is projected to shifting northwest. (3) Under SSP2 and SSP5, the urban land will increase continuously. The findings can offer a valuable insight for regional planning and sustainable development.

Keywords: GeoSOS-FLUS; urban land; shared socioeconomic pathways; Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region; sustainable development (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jlands:v:14:y:2025:i:10:p:1995-:d:1765061

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