The Impact of Geopolitical Risk on the Connectedness Dynamics Among Sovereign Bonds

Mustafa Almabrouk Abdalla Alfughi and Asil Azimli ()
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Mustafa Almabrouk Abdalla Alfughi: Department of Accounting and Finance, Cyprus International University, Haspolat, T.R. North Cyprus Via Mersin 10, Nicosia 99258, Turkey
Asil Azimli: Department of Accounting and Finance, Cyprus International University, Haspolat, T.R. North Cyprus Via Mersin 10, Nicosia 99258, Turkey

Mathematics, 2025, vol. 13, issue 15, 1-36

Abstract: This study examines the impact of geopolitical risk (GPR) on the connectedness dynamics among the sovereign bonds of the emerging seven (E7) and the Group of Seven (G7) countries. Initially, a quantile-based vector-autoregressive (Q-VAR) connectedness approach is used to calculate the total connectedness index (TCI) among sovereign bonds under different market states. Then, the impact of GPR on the TCI at the median and tails is estimated to examine if GPR affects the TCI among sovereign bonds. Using daily yields from 30 January 2012, to 17 June 2024, the findings show that the GPR is one of the significant determinants of the TCI among sovereign bonds during normal and extreme market conditions. Other determinants of the TCI include yields on Treasury bills (T-bills), the exchange rate, and the financial market volatility index. The impact of GPR on the TCI varies significantly during different GPR episodes and bond market conditions. The effect of GPR on the TCI among sovereign bonds yields is higher during war times and when bond yields are average. These findings can be utilized by investors seeking to achieve international diversification and policymakers aiming to mitigate the effects of heightened geopolitical risk on financial stability. Furthermore, GPR can be used as an early signal tool for systematic tail risk spillovers among sovereign bonds.

Keywords: connectedness dynamics; sovereign bonds; geopolitics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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