An Attention-Enhanced Bivariate AI Model for Joint Prediction of Urban Flood Susceptibility and Inundation Depth

Thuan Thanh Le, Tuong Quang Vo and Jongho Kim ()
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Thuan Thanh Le: School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Ulsan, Ulsan 44610, Republic of Korea
Tuong Quang Vo: School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Ulsan, Ulsan 44610, Republic of Korea
Jongho Kim: School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Ulsan, Ulsan 44610, Republic of Korea

Mathematics, 2025, vol. 13, issue 16, 1-24

Abstract: This study presents a novel bivariate-output deep learning framework based on LeNet-5 for the simultaneous prediction of urban flood susceptibility and inundation depth in Seoul, South Korea. Unlike previous studies that relied on single-output models, the proposed approach jointly learns classification and regression targets through a shared feature extraction structure, enhancing consistency and generalization. Among six tested architectures, the Le5SD_CBAM model—integrating a Convolutional Block Attention Module (CBAM)—achieved the best performance, with 83% accuracy, an Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) of 0.91 for flood susceptibility classification, and a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.12 m and root mean squared error (RMSE) of 0.18 m for depth estimation. The model’s spatial predictions aligned well with hydrological principles and past flood records, accurately identifying low-lying flood-prone zones and capturing localized inundation patterns influenced by infrastructure and micro-topography. Importantly, it detected spatial mismatches between susceptibility and depth, demonstrating the benefit of joint modeling. Variable importance analysis highlighted elevation as the dominant predictor, while distances to roads, rivers, and drainage systems were also key contributors. In contrast, secondary terrain attributes had limited influence, indicating that urban infrastructure has significantly altered natural flood flow dynamics. Although the model lacks dynamic forcings such as rainfall and upstream inflows, it remains a valuable tool for flood risk mapping in data-scarce settings. The bivariate-output framework improves computational efficiency and internal coherence compared to separate single-task models, supporting its integration into urban flood management and planning systems.

Keywords: bivariate-output framework; CNN; CBAM; flood susceptibility; flood inundation; flood mapping (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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