Reliability Inference for ZLindley Models Under Improved Adaptive Progressive Censoring: Applications to Leukemia Trials and Flood Risks

Refah Alotaibi and Ahmed Elshahhat ()
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Refah Alotaibi: Department of Mathematical Sciences, College of Science, Princess Nourah bint Abdulrahman University, P.O. Box 84428, Riyadh 11671, Saudi Arabia
Ahmed Elshahhat: Faculty of Technology and Development, Zagazig University, Zagazig 44519, Egypt

Mathematics, 2025, vol. 13, issue 21, 1-28

Abstract: Modern healthcare and engineering both rely on robust reliability models, where handling censored data effectively translates into longer-lasting devices, improved therapies, and safer environments for society. To address this, we develop a novel inferential framework for the ZLindley (ZL) distribution under the improved adaptive progressive Type-II censoring strategy. The proposed approach unifies the flexibility of the ZL model—capable of representing monotonically increasing hazards—with the efficiency of an adaptive censoring strategy that guarantees experiment termination within pre-specified limits. Both classical and Bayesian methodologies are investigated: Maximum likelihood and log-transformed likelihood estimators are derived alongside their asymptotic confidence intervals, while Bayesian estimation is conducted via gamma priors and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, yielding Bayes point estimates, credible intervals, and highest posterior density regions. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations are employed to evaluate estimator performance in terms of bias, efficiency, coverage probability, and interval length across diverse censoring designs. Results demonstrate the superiority of Bayesian inference, particularly under informative priors, and highlight the robustness of HPD intervals over traditional asymptotic approaches. To emphasize practical utility, the methodology is applied to real-world reliability datasets from clinical trials on leukemia patients and hydrological measurements from River Styx floods, demonstrating the model’s ability to capture heterogeneity, over-dispersion, and increasing risk profiles. The empirical investigations reveal that the ZLindley distribution consistently provides a better fit than well-known competitors—including Lindley, Weibull, and Gamma models—when applied to real-world case studies from clinical leukemia trials and hydrological systems, highlighting its unmatched flexibility, robustness, and predictive utility for practical reliability modeling.

Keywords: ZLindley; improved censoring; likelihood and Bayes estimations; MCMC; asymptotic and credible intervals; reliability; Markov iterative; leukemia patients; River Styx floods (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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