A Fermatean Fuzzy Game-Theoretic Framework for Policy Design in Sustainable Health Supply Chains

Ertugrul Ayyildiz, Mirac Murat, Gokhan Ozcelik, Bahar Yalcin Kavus and Tolga Kudret Karaca ()
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Ertugrul Ayyildiz: College of Science and Engineering, Hamad bin Khalifa University, Doha 23874, Qatar
Mirac Murat: Department of Industrial Engineering, Karadeniz Technical University, Trabzon 61080, Turkey
Gokhan Ozcelik: Department of Industrial Engineering, Karadeniz Technical University, Trabzon 61080, Turkey
Bahar Yalcin Kavus: Quality Coordination Office, İzmir Katip Çelebi University, İzmir 35620, Turkey
Tolga Kudret Karaca: Department of Industrial Engineering, Istanbul Topkapi University, Istanbul 34087, Turkey

Mathematics, 2025, vol. 13, issue 22, 1-36

Abstract: Medicine and vaccine supply chains in Nigeria are socio-technical systems exposed to persistent uncertainty and disruption. Existing studies rarely integrate systems thinking with uncertainty-aware decision tools to jointly prioritize challenges and policy responses. This study asks which policy mix most effectively strengthens these supply chains while balancing multiple, conflicting criteria and stakeholder judgments. We develop a two-stage Fermatean fuzzy framework that first weights 35 challenges using Fermatean Fuzzy Stepwise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis (FF-SWARA) and then ranks four policy alternatives via Fermatean Fuzzy VIšeKriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje (FF-VIKOR), based on expert elicitation and linguistic assessments. Results identify interruption of drug supplies, limited vaccine funding, cold-chain potency loss, human resource shortages, and product damage as the most critical challenges. FF-VIKOR prioritizes Effective Implementation of Existing Policies as the best alternative, followed by Improving Access to Medicines and Vaccines, indicating that governance quality and access-enabling infrastructure are complementary levers for resilience. To further enhance robustness, we embed the VIKOR outcomes into a policy-oriented game-theoretic analysis, where strategic weighting scenarios (e.g., cost-focused, infrastructure-driven, human-capital focused) interact with policy choices. The equilibrium results reveal that a mixed strategy combining Effective Implementation of Existing Policies and Strengthening Distribution and Storage Systems guarantees the best compromise performance across adversarial scenarios. The proposed framework operationalizes systems thinking for uncertainty-aware and strategically robust policy design and can be extended with real-time data integration, scenario planning, and regional replication to guide adaptive supply chain governance.

Keywords: health supply chains; game-theory; vaccine; supply chain uncertainty; fermatean fuzzy sets (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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