Uncovering Systemic Risk in ASEAN Corporations: A Framework Based on Graph Theory and Hidden Models

Marc Cortés Rufé (), Jordi Martí Pidelaserra and Cecilia Kindelán Amorrich
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Marc Cortés Rufé: Department of Business, University of Barcelona, 08007 Barcelona, Spain
Jordi Martí Pidelaserra: Department of Business, University of Barcelona, 08007 Barcelona, Spain
Cecilia Kindelán Amorrich: ESIC Business & Marketing School, ESIC University, 28001 Madrid, Spain

Risks, 2025, vol. 13, issue 5, 1-22

Abstract: In the context of an ever-evolving global economy, ASEAN companies face dynamic systemic risk that reshapes their financial interrelationships. This study examines the transmission of these risks using advanced graph theory techniques, particularly the measurement of eigenvector centrality based on Euclidean distances, combined with a hidden model that incorporates macroeconomic variables, such as GDP. The research focuses on identifying critical nodes within the corporate network, evaluating their contagion potential—both in terms of reinforcing resilience and amplifying vulnerabilities—and analyzing the influence of external factors on the network’s structure and behavior. The findings offer an innovative framework for managing systemic risk and provide strategic guidelines for the formulation of economic policies in emerging ASEAN markets.

Keywords: systemic risk; ASEAN; financial contagion; network analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C G0 G1 G2 G3 K2 M2 M4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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