Algorithmic Trading System with Adaptive State Model of a Binary-Temporal Representation

Michal Dominik Stasiak ()
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Michal Dominik Stasiak: Department of Investment and Real Estate, Poznań University of Economics and Business, al. Niepodleglosci 10, 61-875 Poznań, Poland

Risks, 2025, vol. 13, issue 8, 1-12

Abstract: In this paper a new state model is introduced, an adaptative state model in a binary temporal representation (ASMBRT) as well as its application in constructing an algorithmic trading system. The presented model uses the binary temporal representation, which allows for a precise analysis of exchange rates without losing any informative value of the data. The basis of the model is the trajectory analysis for the ensuing changes in price quotations and dependencies between the duration of each change. The main advantage of the model is to eliminate the threshold analysis, used in existing state models. This solution allows for a more accurate identification of investor behavior patterns, which translates into a reduction of investment risk. In order to verify obtained results in practice, the paper presents a concept of creating an algorithmic trading system and an analysis of its financial effectiveness for the exchange rate most popular among investors, namely EUR/USD.

Keywords: state modelling; investment risk; investment decision support; algorithmic trading (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C G0 G1 G2 G3 K2 M2 M4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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