The Effects of Macroeconomic Factors on Road Traffic Safety: A Study Based on the ARDL-ECM Model

Xibing Li, Jiao Liu, Jian Zhou, Xiling Liu, Lei Zhou and Wei Wei
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Xibing Li: School of Resources and Safety Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China
Jiao Liu: School of Resources and Safety Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China
Jian Zhou: School of Resources and Safety Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China
Xiling Liu: School of Resources and Safety Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China
Lei Zhou: Bureau of Ecology and Environment, Changsha 410000, China
Wei Wei: School of Resources and Safety Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China

Sustainability, 2020, vol. 12, issue 24, 1-16

Abstract: This paper attempts to examine whether socioeconomic volatility produces differentiated effects on road traffic accident indicators. Adopting the Autoregressive distributed lag error-correction model (ARDL-ECM), this paper explores the long-term equilibrium and short-term interactions between five common economic indicators, namely, average salaries (AS), employment (EM), unemployment (UE), total mileage of highway (TMH), and private vehicle ownership (PVO), as well as road traffic-related indicators including the number of road traffic accidents (RTA), injuries (IN), fatalities (FA), and direct economic losses (DEL), using data of road traffic accidents spanning from 1999 to 2018 in China. The study found that all economic indicators except average salaries showed a long-term equilibrium with road traffic accident indicators. The Granger causality test showed that, over the short term, an increase in employment could lead to an increase in injuries, and an increase in private vehicle ownership could cause a rise in fatalities. This study demonstrates that the volatility in economic indicators indeed produces differentiated effects on road traffic accident indicators, providing a theoretical basis for improving road safety performance and formulating relevant policies.

Keywords: road traffic safety; macroeconomic; injuries; fatalities; ARDL-ECM model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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