Methodology and Application of Statistical Techniques to Evaluate the Reliability of Electrical Systems Based on the Use of High Variability Generation Sources

César Berna-Escriche, Ángel Pérez-Navarro, Alberto Escrivá, Elías Hurtado, José Luis Muñoz-Cobo and María Cristina Moros
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César Berna-Escriche: Instituto Universitario de Investigación en Ingeniería Energética of the Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV), Camino de Vera s/n, 46022 Valencia, Spain
Ángel Pérez-Navarro: Instituto Universitario de Investigación en Ingeniería Energética of the Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV), Camino de Vera s/n, 46022 Valencia, Spain
Alberto Escrivá: Instituto Universitario de Investigación en Ingeniería Energética of the Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV), Camino de Vera s/n, 46022 Valencia, Spain
Elías Hurtado: Instituto Universitario de Investigación en Ingeniería Energética of the Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV), Camino de Vera s/n, 46022 Valencia, Spain
José Luis Muñoz-Cobo: Instituto Universitario de Investigación en Ingeniería Energética of the Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV), Camino de Vera s/n, 46022 Valencia, Spain
María Cristina Moros: Instituto Universitario de Investigación en Ingeniería Energética of the Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV), Camino de Vera s/n, 46022 Valencia, Spain

Sustainability, 2021, vol. 13, issue 18, 1-27

Abstract: This study presents a new methodology, based on Monte-Carlo techniques to evaluate the reliability of a carbon-free electricity generation system based on renewable sources; it uses as inputs the variation of the electricity demand and the fluctuations in the renewable supply and provides the renewable system to be installed to guarantee a specific supply reliability level. Additionally, looking for a reduction of this renewable system, the methodology determines the improvements by the incorporation of nuclear power and electricity storage. The methodology is of general application, its implementation being possible under different contexts, such as different time horizons and different future energy scenarios, both for developing, emerging, and developed countries. The only requirement is to have a sufficient database from which to make predictions for future scenarios of electrical generation–demand balances. As an example of practical implementation, the electrical system reliability for the particular case of Spain in 2040 has been forecasted. When considering the fluctuations in solar and wind power contributions, very high values of the installed power from these renewable sources are needed to reach a high reliability of the system. These values decrease substantially if contributions from nuclear and storage technologies are included.

Keywords: electricity generation; zero-carbon; renewable energies; statistical analysis; Monte-Carlo sampling methodology; supply reliability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:18:p:10098-:d:632068

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