Risk Assessment of Urban Rail Transit PPP Project Construction Based on Bayesian Network

Zhansheng Liu, Yueyue Jiao, Anxiu Li and Ximei Liu
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Zhansheng Liu: Key Laboratory of Urban Security and Disaster Engineering of Ministry of Education, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China
Yueyue Jiao: Key Laboratory of Urban Security and Disaster Engineering of Ministry of Education, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China
Anxiu Li: Key Laboratory of Urban Security and Disaster Engineering of Ministry of Education, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China
Ximei Liu: Key Laboratory of Urban Security and Disaster Engineering of Ministry of Education, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China

Sustainability, 2021, vol. 13, issue 20, 1-23

Abstract: In recent years, the accident rate of urban rail transit PPP (public–private partnerships) project under construction has been relatively high, and the issue of security risks has attracted great attention from all walks of life. Therefore, it is necessary to identify, analyze, and evaluate the issue of security risks of the urban rail transit PPP project. This paper takes the PPP project of urban rail transit as the object. Through offline interviews and surveys and online questionnaires, this paper focuses on identifying and analyzing the risks brought by the introduction of PPP mode to the urban rail transit project and its action mechanism. The risk evaluation method based on Bayesian network model is studied, which is described from three dimensions: risk occurrence probability, risk reasoning, and risk sensitivity. Finally, an example of Xuzhou Metro Line 3 is given to verify the feasibility of the proposed method. This study provides a reference basis for relevant practitioners and promotes the healthy development of the industry.

Keywords: urban rail transit; PPP; Bayesian networks; construction risk; risk evaluation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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