Towards a Conceptual Framework for Built Infrastructure Design in an Uncertain Climate: Challenges and Research Needs

Amro Nasr, Oskar Larsson Ivanov, Ivar Björnsson, Jonas Johansson and Dániel Honfi
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Amro Nasr: Division of Structural Engineering, Lund University, 22100 Lund, Sweden
Oskar Larsson Ivanov: Division of Structural Engineering, Lund University, 22100 Lund, Sweden
Ivar Björnsson: Division of Structural Engineering, Lund University, 22100 Lund, Sweden
Jonas Johansson: Division of Risk Management and Societal Safety, Lund University, 22100 Lund, Sweden
Dániel Honfi: Monitoring and Analyses of Existing Structures, Ramboll, 2300 Copenhagen, Denmark

Sustainability, 2021, vol. 13, issue 21, 1-19

Abstract: The potential risks of climate change on the built environment involve large uncertainties. This poses an intricate problem to designers and challenges a long-standing tradition of built infrastructure design. More specifically, designers are faced with this challenging question: how to rationally account for climate change risks when designing a new asset? A framework that holistically addresses this difficult question is missing from the current literature. This study contributes to this gap by (1) proposing a conceptual framework for rationally considering the effects of climate change in the design of these assets and (2) identifying the challenges that need to be overcome to facilitate the transition, and further development, of the proposed framework into practice. First, a detailed overview of important infrastructure performance requirements that are relevant to the proposed framework is presented. The different stages of the proposed conceptual framework are then outlined. The proposed framework progresses in the following order: ranking the importance of the asset, identifying the potential climate change risks, analyzing these risks, selecting a design strategy, and finally evaluating the final design. Lastly, several challenges that impede the application of the proposed framework in practical settings are identified. The proposed conceptual framework and the identified challenges comprise a necessary steppingstone towards addressing this pressing issue and developing a more practically applicable framework for considering the risks of climate change in the design of built infrastructure assets.

Keywords: climate change; adaptation; infrastructure; design; risk; resilience; robustness; sustainability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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