Risk Assessment Models to Improve Environmental Safety in the Field of the Economy and Organization of Construction: A Case Study of Russia

Arkadiy Larionov, Ekaterina Nezhnikova and Elena Smirnova
Additional contact information
Arkadiy Larionov: Department of Economics and Management in Construction, Moscow State University of Civil Engineering, 129337 Moscow, Russia
Ekaterina Nezhnikova: Department of National Economy, Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia (RUDN University), 117198 Moscow, Russia
Elena Smirnova: Department of Technosphere Safety, Saint Petersburg State University of Architecture and Civil Engineering, 190005 Saint Petersburg, Russia

Sustainability, 2021, vol. 13, issue 24, 1-37

Abstract: This article assesses risks in order to substantiate the economic and organizational efficiency of housing and industrial construction. This topic is relevant because it is necessary for sustainable development. In Russia, environmental safety in construction and housing, as well as communal services, is poorly developed and not regulated by the legal system. As building construction, housing, and communal services should be based on environmental safety, this topic requires rapid development. Methods related to quantifying environmental risk and making decisions under conditions of uncertainty were studied. A quantitative risk assessment was performed using the Monte Carlo method for pessimistic and optimistic options to prevent environmental damage. The model reproduced the distribution derived from the evidence-based fit. The results of sensitivity analysis are also presented to prove the hypothesis. The selection of the most appropriate probability density functions for each of the input quantities was implemented through settings in a computer program. The simulation modeling results clearly illustrate the choice of the general principle of assessment and the adoption of the optimal decision. In conditions of uncertainty, the decision to choose the optimistic options with high cost (to maintain the reliability of the technical system) but less risk plays a decisive role in the future environmental safety strategies of construction projects. The Monte Carlo method is preferable for environmental impact assessments. In the future, the amended methodology can be applied to raise environmental safety in the field of construction.

Keywords: construction risk; ecological risk; economy risk; environmental safety; Monte Carlo method; quality of life; risk assessment; sustainability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/24/13539/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/24/13539/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:24:p:13539-:d:697060

Access Statistics for this article

Sustainability is currently edited by Ms. Alexandra Wu

More articles in Sustainability from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().