Effects on Global Forests and Wood Product Markets of Increased Demand for Mass Timber

Prakash Nepal, Craig M. T. Johnston and Indroneil Ganguly
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Prakash Nepal: USDA Forest Service, Forest Products Laboratory, Madison, WI 53726, USA
Craig M. T. Johnston: Independent Researcher, Ottawa, ON K1A 0G9, Canada
Indroneil Ganguly: School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USA

Sustainability, 2021, vol. 13, issue 24, 1-26

Abstract: This study evaluated the effects on forest resources and forest product markets of three contrasting mass timber demand scenarios (Conservative, Optimistic, and Extreme), up to 2060, in twelve selected countries in Asia, Europe, North America, and South America. Analyses were carried out by utilizing the FOrest Resource Outlook Model, a partial market equilibrium model of the global forest sector. The findings suggest increases in global softwood lumber production of 8, 23, and 53 million m 3 per year by 2060, under the Conservative, Optimistic, and Extreme scenarios, respectively, leading to world price increases of 2%, 7%, and 23%, respectively. This projected price increase is relative to the projected price in the reference scenario, altering prices, production, consumption, trade of forest products, timber harvest, forest growth, and forest stock in individual countries. An increase in softwood lumber prices due to increased mass timber demand would lead to the reduced consumption of softwood lumber for traditional end-use (e.g., light-frame construction), suggesting a likely strong market competition for softwood lumber between the mass timber and traditional construction industries. In contrast, the projected effect on global forest stock was relatively small based on the relatively fast projected biomass growth in stands assumed to be regenerated after harvest.

Keywords: mass timber demand scenario; global forest sector; timber price; timber harvest; forest stock; wood products price; production; consumption; trade (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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