The Dynamic Correlation among Financial Leverage, House Price, and Consumer Expenditure in China

Kai Dong, Ching-Ter Chang, Shaonan Wang and Xiaoxi Liu
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Kai Dong: Business School of Nanjing, Xiaozhuang University, Nanjing 211171, China
Ching-Ter Chang: Department of Information Management, Chang Gung University, Taoyuan 33302, Taiwan
Shaonan Wang: Department of Agriculture and Applied Economics, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA
Xiaoxi Liu: Business School, Jinling Institute of Technology, Nanjing 211169, China

Sustainability, 2021, vol. 13, issue 5, 1-18

Abstract: With the help of the time-varying parameter vector autoregression with stochastic volatility (TVP-SV-VAR) model and the Bayesian dynamic conditional correlational autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (Bayesian DCC-GARCH) model, this study analyzes the interaction mechanism and dynamic correlation among financial leverage, house price, and consumer expenditure (the survey data are collected from China’s National Bureau of Statistics from January 2000 to December 2019; the data on financial leverage and consumer expenditure are from the Wind economic database, and the price of commercial housing was calculated based on the sales volume and area of commercial housing on the official website of China’s National Bureau of Statistics). Empirical results show that an increase in financial leverage significantly increases house prices and reduces consumer expenditure, that a rise in house prices inhibits financial leverage and weakens consumer expenditure, and that an increase in consumer expenditure raises financial leverage and stimulates a rise in house prices. In addition, house price and consumer expenditure are most relevant, followed by financial leverage and consumer expenditure, and then by financial leverage and house price. Therefore, systematic analysis of dynamic correlation among the three variables has important practical significance for formulating appropriate financial policies to stabilize house prices and promote the growth of consumer expenditures. Specially, financial leverage is an important factor to hold back soaring house prices and shrinking consumer expenditure. Therefore, monetary and macroprudential policies should be used to deal with financial leverage variables in order to achieve a balanced and sustainable development of the macroeconomy in China.

Keywords: financial leverage; house price; consumer expenditure (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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