Health Impact Assessment of Air Pollution under a Climate Change Scenario: Methodology and Case Study Application

Sílvia Coelho, Joana Ferreira (), David Carvalho and Myriam Lopes
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Sílvia Coelho: CESAM & Department of Environment and Planning, University of Aveiro, 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal
Joana Ferreira: CESAM & Department of Environment and Planning, University of Aveiro, 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal
David Carvalho: CESAM & Department of Physics, University of Aveiro, 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal
Myriam Lopes: CESAM & Department of Environment and Planning, University of Aveiro, 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal

Sustainability, 2022, vol. 14, issue 21, 1-25

Abstract: The World Health Organization estimates that every year air pollution kills seven million people worldwide. As it is expected that climate change will affect future air quality patterns, the full understanding of the links between air pollution and climate change, and how they affect human health, are challenges for future research. In this scope, a methodology to assess the air quality impacts on health was developed. The WRF-CAMx modelling framework was applied for the medium-term future climate (considering the SSP2-4.5 scenario) and for the recent past (considered as baseline). Following the WHO recommendations, mortality health indicators were used to estimate the health impacts of long-term exposures. For that, the Aveiro Region, in Portugal, was considered as a case study. Future climate results indicate the occurrence of higher temperatures, and lower total precipitation. Despite that, improvements in the main pollutants’ concentrations, and consequently in the reduction of the related premature deaths are foreseen, mainly due to the reduction of pollutants emissions imposed by the European legislation for the upcoming years. The applied approach constitutes an added value in this research field, being crucial to anticipate the effects of climate change on air quality and evaluate their impacts on human health.

Keywords: SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathway) scenarios; air quality; WRF-CAMx; numerical modelling; urban areas; health impact assessment; premature deaths (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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