Prediction of Pork Supply Based on Improved Mayfly Optimization Algorithm and BP Neural Network

Ji-Quan Wang (), Hong-Yu Zhang, Hao-Hao Song, Pan-Li Zhang and Jin-Ling Bei
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Ji-Quan Wang: College of Engineering, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150030, China
Hong-Yu Zhang: College of Engineering, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150030, China
Hao-Hao Song: College of Engineering, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150030, China
Pan-Li Zhang: College of Engineering, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150030, China
Jin-Ling Bei: College of Engineering, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150030, China

Sustainability, 2022, vol. 14, issue 24, 1-21

Abstract: Focusing on the issues of slow convergence speed and the ease of falling into a local optimum when optimizing the weights and thresholds of a back-propagation artificial neural network (BPANN) by the gradient method, a prediction method for pork supply based on an improved mayfly optimization algorithm (MOA) and BPANN is proposed. Firstly, in order to improve the performance of MOA, an improved mayfly optimization algorithm with an adaptive visibility coefficient (AVC-IMOA) is introduced. Secondly, AVC-IMOA is used to optimize the weights and thresholds of a BPANN (AVC-IMOA_BP). Thirdly, the trained BPANN and the statistical data are adopted to predict the pork supply in Heilongjiang Province from 2000 to 2020. Finally, to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method for predicting pork supply, the pork supply in Heilongjiang Province was predicted by using AVC-IMOA_BP, a BPANN based on the gradient descent method and a BPANN based on a mixed-strategy whale optimization algorithm (MSWOA_BP), a BPANN based on an artificial bee colony algorithm (ABC_BP) and a BPANN based on a firefly algorithm and sparrow search algorithm (FASSA_BP) in the literature. The results show that the prediction accuracy of the proposed method based on AVC-IMOA and a BPANN is obviously better than those of MSWOA_BP, ABC_BP and FASSA_BP, thus verifying the superior performance of AVC-IMOA_BP.

Keywords: mayfly optimization algorithm; BP artificial neural network; weights and thresholds; pork supply; prediction (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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