An Exploration of Characteristics and Time Series Forecast of Fatal Road Crashes in Manipal, India

Kumar Sumit, Veerle Ross, Robert A. C. Ruiter, Evelien Polders, Geert Wets and Kris Brijs
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Kumar Sumit: Department of Work & Social Psychology, Maastricht University, 6200 MD Maastricht, The Netherlands
Veerle Ross: UHasselt–Hasselt University, School of Transportation Sciences, Transportation Research Institute (IMOB), Agoralaan, 3590 Diepenbeek, Belgium
Robert A. C. Ruiter: Department of Work & Social Psychology, Maastricht University, 6200 MD Maastricht, The Netherlands
Evelien Polders: UHasselt–Hasselt University, School of Transportation Sciences, Transportation Research Institute (IMOB), Agoralaan, 3590 Diepenbeek, Belgium
Geert Wets: UHasselt–Hasselt University, School of Transportation Sciences, Transportation Research Institute (IMOB), Agoralaan, 3590 Diepenbeek, Belgium
Kris Brijs: UHasselt–Hasselt University, School of Transportation Sciences, Transportation Research Institute (IMOB), Agoralaan, 3590 Diepenbeek, Belgium

Sustainability, 2022, vol. 14, issue 5, 1-19

Abstract: Road crashes are the sixth leading cause of death in India. There has been a fourfold increase in the number of road traffic crashes in India in the last four decades and an increase of 9.8 times in the fatalities associated with that exponential increase. Manipal is a coastal place with a population of approximately 50,000 inhabitants lying in between the western Mountain range and the Arabian sea. The study’s objective is to explore the characteristics of fatal road crashes in Manipal from 2008–2018 using the data pertaining to fatal crashes retrieved from the office of the superintendent of police. Furthermore, it aims to forecast crashes by time series analysis prediction. The results show that most of the fatal crashes are due to exceeding the lawful speed limit, followed by driving under the influence of alcohol and going ahead and overtaking. The time series analysis forecasted the number of fatal crashes until the year 2025 and predicted that there will be an increase in the number of fatal road crashes by 4.5%. The results also provide essential leads for initiating specific intervention programmes targeting the causes of fatal road crashes.

Keywords: crash data; road traffic crashes; time series analysis; Manipal (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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