Changes of Water Vapor Budget over East Asia in Response to 4xCO 2 Concentration Forcing

Zhengqin Shen, Tao Xu, Guanyu Liu, Xuguang Sun () and Xiu-Qun Yang
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Zhengqin Shen: China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China
Tao Xu: China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China
Guanyu Liu: China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China
Xuguang Sun: China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China
Xiu-Qun Yang: China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China

Sustainability, 2022, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-17

Abstract: Water resources are essential for the economic development and social security in East Asia, especially under global warming. Based on newly released CMIP6 149-year simulation data from a pre-industrial control experiment (piControl) and a forced experiment on the abrupt quadrupling of CO 2 concentration (abrupt-4xCO 2 ), changes of water vapor budget over East Asia due to 4xCO 2 concentration forcing and their possible mechanisms are investigated. Change of precipitation (P) demonstrates a spatial pattern of “Southern Flood and Northern Drought” (SFND) in eastern China, which can also be seen in the change of evaporation (E), though at a much smaller amplitude. The change of water vapor budget represented by E–P is dominated by P, which is primarily induced by changes of water vapor divergence associated with both moisture-related thermodynamic contribution and atmospheric circulation-related dynamic contribution. Specifically, under global warming, tropical El Nino-like SST warming causes weakened Walker circulation through decreased zonal temperature gradient, while amplified Arctic warming induces a negative Arctic Oscillation pattern via reduced meridional temperature gradient. The combined signals from tropical and mid-high latitudes result in significant long-term changes of water vapor convergence as well as much more precipitation in the Yangtze River Valley, forming the SFND. Furthermore, the intensity of the SFND change pattern could also have notable interdecadal variation, which is mainly attributed to the modulation of interdecadal signals of the Indian Ocean basin mode (IOBM) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Results of this study could provide an important scientific basis for the future planning and management of water resources over East Asia, specifically in eastern China.

Keywords: water vapor budget; 4xCO 2 concentration forcing; Southern Flood and Northern Drought; El Nino-like SST warming; Walker circulation; amplified Arctic warming; Arctic Oscillation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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