The Fluctuation Characteristics and Periodic Patterns of Potato Prices in China

Hongwei Lu, Tingting Li, Jianfei Lv, Aoxue Wang, Qiyou Luo, Mingjie Gao () and Guojing Li ()
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Hongwei Lu: Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
Tingting Li: Institute of Agricultural Economy and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
Jianfei Lv: Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
Aoxue Wang: Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
Qiyou Luo: Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
Mingjie Gao: Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
Guojing Li: Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China

Sustainability, 2023, vol. 15, issue 10, 1-16

Abstract: The aim of this paper was to provide a more scientific and effective analysis of the fluctuation pattern of the Chinese potato market by extracting the characteristics of the price fluctuation cycle to effectively grasp the characteristics of price changes in the potato market, thus promoting the stable and healthy development of the Chinese potato industry, and to expand the application scenarios of the EEMD model to provide a reference for the study of price fluctuation patterns in other agricultural markets. This study used an ensemble empirical modal decomposition (EEMD) model to examine time-series data on Chinese wholesale potato market prices from January 2005 to December 2021. The results showed that (1) Chinese wholesale potato market prices are characterized by some rigidity, with sharp changes in growth rates; (2) Chinese wholesale potato market prices are dominated by short- and medium-term fluctuations, and the decomposed components can better reflect the characteristics of the original series fluctuations; (3) Chinese wholesale potato market monthly prices have long- and short-term fluctuations with a 6- and 19-month cycle, and are dominated by short-term high-frequency fluctuations; (4) monthly price fluctuations in the Chinese wholesale potato market are more intense in high-frequency than low-frequency fluctuations, and there is a strong correlation between high- and low-frequency fluctuations in precipitation, temperature and potato prices. Finally, suggestions were made for creating and improving a national potato price information platform and strengthening the information early warning mechanism; improving the potato production interest linkage mechanism and enhancing potato farmers’ ability to cope with market and natural risks; and improving the potato reserve system and potato storage facilities.

Keywords: price fluctuations; potato; EEMD model; eigenmode reconstruction; volatility cycle (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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