Evaluating the Feedback of the Reservoir Methane Cycle to Climate Warming under Hydrological Uncertainty

Yunying Li, Wenjie Fan, Guni Xiang and Zhihao Xu ()
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Yunying Li: Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Quality Improvement and Ecological Restoration for Watersheds, Institute of Environmental and Ecological Engineering, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China
Wenjie Fan: Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Quality Improvement and Ecological Restoration for Watersheds, Institute of Environmental and Ecological Engineering, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China
Guni Xiang: Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Quality Improvement and Ecological Restoration for Watersheds, Institute of Environmental and Ecological Engineering, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China
Zhihao Xu: Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Quality Improvement and Ecological Restoration for Watersheds, Institute of Environmental and Ecological Engineering, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China

Sustainability, 2023, vol. 15, issue 12, 1-14

Abstract: Freshwater reservoirs are widely recognized as methane (CH 4 ) emission hotspots. Existing research has shown that temperature and hydrological conditions significantly affect wetland CH 4 cycling processes. However, the feedback of the CH 4 cycle to climate warming remains unclear for deep reservoirs where seasonal water thermal stratification exists. This study combined a reservoir CH 4 cycling model and a Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) to evaluate reservoir CH 4 cycling feedbacks under multiple climate change scenarios while accounting for hydrological uncertainty. Daily air temperatures in 2100 were predicted by the combination of the CanESM5 model and a SDSM. To address hydrological uncertainty, we selected three representative hydrological years (i.e., wet, normal, and dry) to create hydrological scenarios. Results showed that annual sediment CH 4 production increased with warming, ranging 323.1–413.7 × 10 3 t C year −1 among multiple scenarios. Meanwhile, the CH 4 oxidation percentage decreased with warming, which meant warming promoted sediment CH 4 release non-linearly; 67.8–84.6% of sediment ebullient flux was ultimately emitted to the atmosphere (51.3–137.7 × 10 3 t C year −1 ), which showed ebullition was the dominant emission pathway. Higher air temperatures and drier conditions generally promote reservoir emissions. This study is helpful for predicting reservoir emissions while directing decision-making for reservoir sustainability.

Keywords: carbon emission; climate change; hydrological uncertainty; mechanistic model; biogeochemical process (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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