Assessing Impacts of Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) Change on Stream Flow and Runoff in Rur Basin, Germany

Saurabh Shukla, Tesfa Worku Meshesha, Indra S. Sen (), Roland Bol, Heye Bogena and Junye Wang ()
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Saurabh Shukla: Faculty of Science and Technology, Athabasca University, Athabasca, AB T9S 3A3, Canada
Tesfa Worku Meshesha: Faculty of Science and Technology, Athabasca University, Athabasca, AB T9S 3A3, Canada
Indra S. Sen: Department of Earth Sciences, Old Sac Area, Block-C, Ground Floor, Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur, Kanpur 208016, India
Roland Bol: Institute of Bio- and Geosciences, Agrosphere (IBG-3), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, 52425 Jülich, North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany
Heye Bogena: Institute of Bio- and Geosciences, Agrosphere (IBG-3), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, 52425 Jülich, North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany
Junye Wang: Faculty of Science and Technology, Athabasca University, Athabasca, AB T9S 3A3, Canada

Sustainability, 2023, vol. 15, issue 12, 1-24

Abstract: Understanding the impact of land use/land cover (LULC) change on hydrology is the key to sustainable water resource management. In this study, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to evaluate the impact of LULC change on the runoff in the Rur basin, Germany. The SWAT model was calibrated against the observed data of stream flow and runoff at three sites (Stah, Linnich, and Monschau) between 2000 and 2010 and validated between 2011 and 2015. The performance of the hydrological model was assessed by using statistical parameters such as the coefficient of determination (R 2 ), p -value, r -value, and percentage bias (PBAIS). Our analysis reveals that the average R 2 values for model calibration and validation were 0.68 and 0.67 ( n = 3), respectively. The impacts of three change scenarios on stream runoff were assessed by replacing the partial forest with urban settlements, agricultural land, and grasslands compared to the 2006 LULC map. The SWAT model captured, overall, the spatio-temporal patterns and effects of LULC change on the stream runoffs despite the heterogeneous runoff responses related to the variable impacts of the different LULC. The results show that LULC change from deciduous forest to urban settlements, agricultural land, or grasslands increased the overall basin runoff by 43%, 14%, and 4%, respectively.

Keywords: SWAT model; LULC change; water resource; runoff; watershed modelling; basin (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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