A Numerical Simulation Study on the Probable Maximum Typhoon Wave in the South China Sea

Jianjun Yi, Xingnan Zhang, Guoliang Zou, Ke Zhang () and Jianquan Wang
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Jianjun Yi: College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210024, China
Xingnan Zhang: College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210024, China
Guoliang Zou: Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China
Ke Zhang: College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210024, China
Jianquan Wang: College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210024, China

Sustainability, 2023, vol. 15, issue 13, 1-20

Abstract: The South China Sea spans the tropics and subtropics. Tropical cyclones in the area are extremely active, due to the features of its marine environment, such as wide water-depth profile, complex topography and hydrology. The maximum wave heights along the coast of China are normally generated by typhoons. Especially in the context of global warming, extreme weather events have significantly increased in the recent years, leading to more frequent strong and super typhoons. With the development of resources and energy in China expanding into the deep sea, extreme waves have caused serious damage to sea projects, endangering people’s lives and properties. Selecting the accurate typhoon gradient model to calculate various extreme waves, including the probable maximum tropical cyclone (PMTC) wave, is of significance for the safety of marine engineering construction and disaster prevention and mitigation. In this paper, we first proposed a wind field fusion model suitable for the South China Sea by superimposing an empirical typhoon model with the background wind field, and further verified it using the measured typhoon data. Secondly, the fused wind field was used as the input wind field of the SWAN (Simulating Waves Nearshore) model, and the wave fields of typhoons “Usagi” and “Mangosteen” were used to verify the model. The relevant parameters of PMTC were calculated using the Pearson Type III frequency fitting method, while the verified SWAN model was used to calculate the probable maximum typhoon wave, and P-III frequency analysis was carried out by direction of the extrapolated result of typhoon waves to obtain the design wave elements of each return period. Finally, a model for calculating the probable maximum typhoon wave suitable for this sea area was proposed to derive the characteristic parameters and time-histories of the probable maximum typhoon wave and the wave heights and their corresponding frequencies of various extreme waves.

Keywords: fused wind field; probable maximum tropical cyclone (PMTC); SWAN model; extreme waves (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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