Gaining Profound Knowledge of Cholera Outbreak: The Significance of the Allee Effect on Bacterial Population Growth and Its Implications for Human-Environment Health

Gabriel Kolaye Guilsou (), Moulay-Ahmed Aziz-Alaoui, Raymond Houé Ngouna, Bernard Archimede and Samuel Bowong
Additional contact information
Gabriel Kolaye Guilsou: Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Faculty of Science, University of Maroua, Maroua P.O. Box 814, Cameroon
Moulay-Ahmed Aziz-Alaoui: LMAH (Laboratoire de Mathématiques Appliquées du Havre), FR-CNRS-3335, ISCN (Institut des Systèmes Complexes en Normandie), Université de Normandie, 25 Rue Philippe Lebon, F-76600 Le Havre, France
Raymond Houé Ngouna: LGP (Laboratoire Génie de Production), Toulouse INP/Ecole Nationale d’Ingénieurs de Tarbes, 47 Avenue d’Azereix, F-65000 Tarbes, France
Bernard Archimede: LGP (Laboratoire Génie de Production), Toulouse INP/Ecole Nationale d’Ingénieurs de Tarbes, 47 Avenue d’Azereix, F-65000 Tarbes, France
Samuel Bowong: Laboratory of Mathematics, Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Faculty of Sciences, University of Douala, Douala P.O. Box 24157, Cameroon

Sustainability, 2023, vol. 15, issue 13, 1-30

Abstract: Cholera is a bacterial disease that is commonly transmitted through contaminated water, leading to severe diarrhea and rapid dehydration that can prove fatal if left untreated. The complexity of the disease spread arises from the convergence of several distinct and interrelated factors, which previous research has often failed to consider. A significant scientific limitation of the existing literature is the simplistic assumption of linear or logistic dynamics of the disease spread, thereby impeding a thorough assessment of the effectiveness of control strategies. Since environmental factors are the most influential determinant of Vibrio bacterial growth in nature and are responsible for the resurgence, propagation, and disappearance of cholera epidemics, we have proposed a S-I-R-S model that combines bacterial dynamics with the Allee effect. This model takes into account the environmental influence and allows for a better understanding of the disease dynamics. Our results have revealed the phenomenon of bi-stability, with backward and forward bifurcation. Furthermore, our findings have demonstrated that the Allee effect provides a robust framework for characterizing fluctuations in bacterial populations and the onset of cholera outbreaks. This framework can be used for assessing the effectiveness of control strategies, including regular environmental sanitation programs, adherence to hygiene protocols, and monitoring of unfavorable weather conditions.

Keywords: cholera; Allee effect; bacterial population growth; basic reproduction number; disease-free equilibrium; control strategies; mathematical epidemiology (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/13/10384/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/13/10384/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:13:p:10384-:d:1184485

Access Statistics for this article

Sustainability is currently edited by Ms. Alexandra Wu

More articles in Sustainability from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().