Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Climatic Precursors before Major Earthquakes in Iran (2011–2021)

Mohammad Reza Mansouri Daneshvar (), Friedemann T. Freund and Majid Ebrahimi
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Mohammad Reza Mansouri Daneshvar: Department of Geography and Natural Hazards, Research Institute SP, Mashhad 91978-75699, Iran
Friedemann T. Freund: SETI Institute, 339 N Bernardo Ave Suite 200, Mountain View, CA 94043, USA
Majid Ebrahimi: Department of Physical Geography, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar 96179-76487, Iran

Sustainability, 2023, vol. 15, issue 14, 1-30

Abstract: The present study provides a systematic assessment of the relationships between climatic variables and major earthquakes (M > 6) in Iran (2011–2021). These variables include total cloud cover (tcc), low cloud cover (lcc), total precipitation (tp), surface latent heat flux (slhf), and total column rainwater (tcrw). Based on a wider set of variables provided by a multidimensional global dataset (ERA5), the combination of a cross-correlation function (CCF) and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) was used to develop the spatial and temporal analytic relations. Covering maximal values from 0.42 to 0.92, the CCF plots revealed that an increase in climatic parameters could provide valuable information about impending earthquake activity within 8 to 20 days. The mean values of tcc, lcc, tp, slhf, and tcrw were found to increase by 95%, 60%, 80.0 mm, 105 W/m 2 , and 95 kg −3 /m 2 , respectively. In fact, with the mean AUC (area under the curve) indices ranging from 0.677 (tcc) to 0.810 (tcrw) prior to major earthquakes, the ROC plots allowed for discrimination between seismic and climatic variables ranging from “acceptable” to “excellent”. The changes in the climatic variables under study were due to anomalous air ionization and water condensation in the atmosphere, which can be regarded as short-term precursors to major earthquakes.

Keywords: climatic variables; cross-correlation; earthquake events; spatial analysis; time series; Iran (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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