Sustainability of Shipping Logistics: A Warning Model

Ronghua Xu, Yiran Liu, Meng Liu () and Chengang Ye
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Ronghua Xu: Business School, Ningbo University, Ningbo 315211, China
Yiran Liu: Business School, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing 100029, China
Meng Liu: School of International Business and Management, Sichuan International Studies University, Chongqing 400031, China
Chengang Ye: Business School, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing 100029, China

Sustainability, 2023, vol. 15, issue 14, 1-15

Abstract: The shipping industry is the foundation of the economy, and it is affected by fluctuations in the economic cycle. The mainstream of financial early warning research is quantitative modeling research. There are few systematic studies on financial early warning of shipping enterprises, and most of them still remain in the qualitative stage. This paper chooses Chinese listed shipping companies as its target, takes the economic cycle as an important reference, and then uses logistic regression, neural network, and random-forest methods to establish a model for financial warning. The random-forest model is employed to rank the importance of warning indicators. The results show that it is effective to consider macro-factors, such as the economic cycle, and the predictive accuracy of the random-forest method is higher than that of the financial warning models established by logistic regression and by the neural network. Financial alerts can help managers prepare for crises in advance. The purpose of this paper is to provide an early warning model for the sustainable development of shipping logistics.

Keywords: shipping enterprises; economic cycle; financial early warning; random forest (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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