Anticipated Transport Choices in a World Featuring Autonomous Transport Options

Leon Booth (), Victoria Farrar, Jason Thompson, Rajith Vidanaarachchi, Branislava Godic, Julie Brown, Charles Karl and Simone Pettigrew
Additional contact information
Leon Booth: The George Institute for Global Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
Victoria Farrar: The George Institute for Global Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
Jason Thompson: Melbourne School of Design, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC 3010, Australia
Rajith Vidanaarachchi: Melbourne School of Design, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC 3010, Australia
Branislava Godic: Melbourne School of Design, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC 3010, Australia
Julie Brown: The George Institute for Global Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
Charles Karl: Australian Road Research Board (ARRB), Port Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC 3207, Australia
Simone Pettigrew: The George Institute for Global Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia

Sustainability, 2023, vol. 15, issue 14, 1-10

Abstract: (1) Background: The automation of transport systems is well underway; however, it is unclear how this will affect people’s mobility choices. Changes in these choices have implications for health and the sustainability and efficiency of transport systems, making it important to understand how the advent of autonomous vehicles might affect people’s transport behaviors. The aim of the present study was to address this knowledge gap in the Australian context. (2) Methods: Respondents reported their demographic information, current transport behaviors, the perceived importance of transport-related factors, and attitudes toward autonomous vehicles. They then read a vignette describing a future scenario involving autonomous vehicles that was informed by expert stakeholders. After reading the vignette, the respondents selected those transport options that they would anticipate using in the depicted scenario. Descriptive analyses were conducted to examine changes in transport choices, while regression models were employed to identify the predictors of choices in the future scenario. (3) Results: Most respondents envisaged making greater use of active, shared, and public transport options in an autonomous future, compared to their current use of these options. The intended use of private transport options halved. The most consistent predictor for selecting a certain mode of transport was the current use of that option or its non-autonomous equivalent. (4) Conclusion: Overall, favorable changes in the envisaged use of transport were observed for the hypothetical scenario, which was characterized by improved public transport, a practical active transport infrastructure, and relatively cheap shared autonomous vehicles. If policymakers can act to realize these outcomes, the autonomation of transport is likely to lead to positive societal change.

Keywords: autonomous vehicles; transport choices; sustainability; health; physical activity; active transport; shared autonomous vehicles; private autonomous vehicles; public transport (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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