Land-Use-Change-Induced Cooling and Precipitation Reduction in China: Insights from CMIP6 Models

Peizhi Tian, Binyang Jian, Jianrui Li, Xitian Cai (), Jiangfeng Wei () and Guo Zhang
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Peizhi Tian: Center for Water Resources and Environment, School of Civil Engineering, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China
Binyang Jian: Center for Water Resources and Environment, School of Civil Engineering, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China
Jianrui Li: Center for Water Resources and Environment, School of Civil Engineering, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China
Xitian Cai: Center for Water Resources and Environment, School of Civil Engineering, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China
Jiangfeng Wei: Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
Guo Zhang: CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China

Sustainability, 2023, vol. 15, issue 16, 1-24

Abstract: In the 21st century, the effect of land use/land cover change (LULCC) on climate has become an area of active research. To explore the effects of LULCC on temperature and precipitation in China, we used outputs from the BCC-CSM2-MR, CESM2, IPSL-CM6A-LR, and UKESM1 models, which participated in the Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Based on these models, we identified temporal variations in precipitation and near-surface air temperature (hereinafter temperature) with and without historical land use changes and their relation with LULCC in China during 1850–2014. We then determined the significant changing period (1972–2012) and revealed the relation between the spatial distribution of historical change in vegetation cover types, precipitation, and temperature. The results showed that annual historical precipitation decreased faster (132.23 mm/(1000 a) faster), while annual historical temperature increased slower (2.70 °C/(1000 a) slower) than that without LULCC during 1850–2014. LULCC not only influenced surface properties to change local precipitation and temperature distributions and mean values, but also affected other components through atmospheric circulations due to typical monsoon characteristics in China. The relative contribution of grassland change to precipitation variation was the largest, while relatively, cropland change contributed the most to temperature variation. Our study innovatively used new model outputs from LUMIP to analyze the impacts of LULCC on precipitation and temperature, which can help to guide and improve future land use management and predictions of precipitation and temperature.

Keywords: land use/land cover change; China; temperature; precipitation; CMIP6; LUMIP (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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