A Lower Threat than I Thought: How the Analysis of the Interdependence between Risks Influences Smallholder Farmers’ Perceptions

Nuru Kipato (), Peter Dorward and Graham Clarkson
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Nuru Kipato: School of Agriculture, Policy and Development, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6AR, UK
Peter Dorward: School of Agriculture, Policy and Development, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6AR, UK
Graham Clarkson: School of Agriculture, Policy and Development, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6AR, UK

Sustainability, 2023, vol. 15, issue 19, 1-19

Abstract: Smallholder farming businesses are exposed to numerous risks which significantly affect productivity, income, and farmers’ livelihoods. These risks are interdependent in nature and co-occur, which makes managing a single risk in isolation an inadequate approach. This study examined how the analysis of the interdependence between risks can influence farmers’ perceptions of risk. The study employed focus group discussions and participatory activities, which involved the use of Scored Causal Diagrams (SCDs) to analyse risks with farmers and assess changes in perception. The results showed that the analysis of the interdependence between risks influenced a change in perceptions of risk for farmers, by enabling farmers to identify the important risks, cause-and-effect relationships between risks, and the root causes of risks. This also led to changes in the farmers’ own perceived ability to manage these risks. The analysis of the interdependence between risks provides insight into the design of holistic approaches for the management of risks. It enables farmers to identify the cause-and-effect relationships between risks, identify risks which contribute substantially to hindering their farming goals, and identify entry points for managing multiple interdependent risks. A unique contribution of this study is it presents a process for eliciting and analysing farmers’ perceptions of the interdependence between risks and explores how such analysis contributes to changes in farmers’ perceptions of individual risks. These changes in perceptions of individual risks ultimately shape farmers’ decisions about whether and how to adapt risk-management behaviour.

Keywords: farming risks; interdependence of risks; risk perception; risk management; holistic management; smallholder farming; Singida Region (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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