Scoping Potential Routes to UK Civil Unrest via the Food System: Results of a Structured Expert Elicitation

Aled Jones (), Sarah Bridle, Katherine Denby, Riaz Bhunnoo, Daniel Morton, Lucy Stanbrough, Barnaby Coupe, Vanessa Pilley, Tim Benton, Pete Falloon, Tom K. Matthews, Saher Hasnain, John S. Heslop-Harrison, Simon Beard, Julie Pierce, Jules Pretty, Monika Zurek, Alexandra Johnstone, Pete Smith, Neil Gunn, Molly Watson, Edward Pope, Asaf Tzachor, Caitlin Douglas, Christian Reynolds, Neil Ward, Jez Fredenburgh, Clare Pettinger, Tom Quested, Juan Pablo Cordero, Clive Mitchell, Carrie Bewick, Cameron Brown, Christopher Brown, Paul J. Burgess, Andy Challinor, Andrew Cottrell, Thomas Crocker, Thomas George, Charles J. Godfray, Rosie S. Hails, John Ingram, Tim Lang, Fergus Lyon, Simon Lusher, Tom MacMillan, Sue Newton, Simon Pearson, Sue Pritchard, Dale Sanders, Angelina Sanderson Bellamy, Megan Steven, Alastair Trickett, Andrew Voysey, Christine Watson, Darren Whitby and Kerry Whiteside
Additional contact information
Aled Jones: Global Sustainability Institute, Anglia Ruskin University, Cambridge CB1 1PT, UK
Sarah Bridle: Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, York YO10 5NG, UK
Katherine Denby: Centre for Novel Agricultural Products (CNAP), Department of Biology, University of York, York YO10 5DD, UK
Riaz Bhunnoo: Global Food Security Programme, Polaris House, Swindon SN2 1UH, UK
Daniel Morton: UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (UKCEH), Maclean Building, Benson Lane, Wallingford OX10 8BB, UK
Lucy Stanbrough: WTW (Willis Towers Watson), 51 Lime Street, London EC3M 7DQ, UK
Barnaby Coupe: The Wildlife Trusts, The Kiln, Mather Road, Newark NG24 1WT, UK
Vanessa Pilley: Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, Nobel House, Smith Square, London SW1P 3JR, UK
Tim Benton: Chatham House, 10 St James Square, London SW1Y 4LE, UK
Pete Falloon: Met Office Hadley Centre, Met Office, Fitz Roy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK
Tom K. Matthews: Department of Geography, King’s College London, London WC2R 2LS, UK
Saher Hasnain: Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 4BH, UK
John S. Heslop-Harrison: Institute for Environmental Futures, Department of Genetics and Genome Biology, University of Leicester, Leicester LE1 7RH, UK
Simon Beard: Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 1TN, UK
Julie Pierce: Food Standards Agency, Foss House, Kings Pool, 1–2 Peasholme Green, York Y01 7PR, UK
Jules Pretty: Centre for Public and Policy Engagement, University of Essex, Wivenhoe Park, Colchester CO4 3SQ, UK
Monika Zurek: Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 4BH, UK
Alexandra Johnstone: The Rowett Institute, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen AB25 2ZD, UK
Pete Smith: Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen AB24 3UU, UK
Neil Gunn: WTW (Willis Towers Watson), 51 Lime Street, London EC3M 7DQ, UK
Molly Watson: Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, York YO10 5NG, UK
Edward Pope: Met Office Hadley Centre, Met Office, Fitz Roy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK
Asaf Tzachor: Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 1TN, UK
Caitlin Douglas: Department of Geography, King’s College London, London WC2R 2LS, UK
Christian Reynolds: Centre for Food Policy, City, University of London, Northampton Square, London EC1V 0HB, UK
Neil Ward: School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK
Jez Fredenburgh: School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK
Clare Pettinger: School of Health Professions, University of Plymouth, Plymouth PL6 8BH, UK
Tom Quested: Waste & Resources Action Programme (WRAP), Blenheim Court, 19 George Street, Barnaby OC16 5BH, UK
Juan Pablo Cordero: Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, York YO10 5NG, UK
Clive Mitchell: NatureScot, Battleby, Redgorton, Perth PH1 3EW, UK
Carrie Bewick: Forum for the Future, 3rd Floor, 22–26 Paul Street, London EC2A 4QE, UK
Cameron Brown: WTW (Willis Towers Watson), 51 Lime Street, London EC3M 7DQ, UK
Christopher Brown: Sustainable Supply Chains, Asda, Asda House, Great Wilson Street, Leeds LS11 5AD, UK
Paul J. Burgess: School of Water, Energy and Environment, Cranfield University, Cranfield MK43 0AL, UK
Andy Challinor: School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9AT, UK
Andrew Cottrell: Met Office Hadley Centre, Met Office, Fitz Roy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK
Thomas Crocker: Met Office Hadley Centre, Met Office, Fitz Roy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK
Thomas George: Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, Nobel House, Smith Square, London SW1P 3JR, UK
Charles J. Godfray: Oxford Martin School, Oxford University, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK
Rosie S. Hails: National Trust, Heelis, Kemble Drive, Swindon SN2 2NA, UK
John Ingram: Department of Geography, King’s College London, London WC2R 2LS, UK
Tim Lang: School of Sustainability, Reichman University, 8 Ha’Universita St., Herzliya 4610101, Israel
Fergus Lyon: Centre for Enterprise Environment and Development Research, Middlesex University, The Burroughs, London NW4 4BT, UK
Simon Lusher: WTW (Willis Towers Watson), 51 Lime Street, London EC3M 7DQ, UK
Tom MacMillan: Centre for Effective Innovation in Agriculture, Royal Agricultural University, Cirencester GL7 6JS, UK
Sue Newton: WTW (Willis Towers Watson), 51 Lime Street, London EC3M 7DQ, UK
Simon Pearson: Lincoln Institute for Agri-Food Technology, University of Lincoln, Lincoln LN6 7TS, UK
Sue Pritchard: The Food, Farming and Countryside Commission, 1–3 Gloucester Road, Bristol BS7 8AA, UK
Dale Sanders: Biology Department, University of York, York YO10 5DD, UK
Angelina Sanderson Bellamy: School of Applied Sciences, University of the West of England (UWE), Bristol BS16 1QY, UK
Megan Steven: WTW (Willis Towers Watson), 51 Lime Street, London EC3M 7DQ, UK
Alastair Trickett: Trickett Farming Ltd., Fortshot House Farm, Wike, Leeds LS17 9JY, UK
Andrew Voysey: Soil Capital, 6 Putney Common, London SW15 1HL, UK
Christine Watson: Scotland’s Rural College (SRUC), Peter Wilson Building, The King’s Buildings, West Mains Road, Edinburgh EH9 3JG, UK
Darren Whitby: Food Standards Agency, Foss House, Kings Pool, 1–2 Peasholme Green, York Y01 7PR, UK
Kerry Whiteside: Samworth Brothers, 1 Samworth Way, Melton Mowbray LE13 1GA, UK

Sustainability, 2023, vol. 15, issue 20, 1-21

Abstract: We report the results of a structured expert elicitation to identify the most likely types of potential food system disruption scenarios for the UK, focusing on routes to civil unrest. We take a backcasting approach by defining as an end-point a societal event in which 1 in 2000 people have been injured in the UK, which 40% of experts rated as “Possible (20–50%)”, “More likely than not (50–80%)” or “Very likely (>80%)” over the coming decade. Over a timeframe of 50 years, this increased to 80% of experts. The experts considered two food system scenarios and ranked their plausibility of contributing to the given societal scenario. For a timescale of 10 years, the majority identified a food distribution problem as the most likely. Over a timescale of 50 years, the experts were more evenly split between the two scenarios, but over half thought the most likely route to civil unrest would be a lack of total food in the UK. However, the experts stressed that the various causes of food system disruption are interconnected and can create cascading risks, highlighting the importance of a systems approach. We encourage food system stakeholders to use these results in their risk planning and recommend future work to support prevention, preparedness, response and recovery planning.

Keywords: food systems; global catastrophic risk; climate change; extreme weather; ecological collapse; scenarios; cascading risks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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