Medium- and Long-Term Prediction of Airport Carbon Emissions under Uncertain Conditions Based on the LEAP Model

Wenjing Ye, Lili Wan, Zhan Wang (), Wenhui Ye, Jinhui Chen, Yangyang Lv, Zhanpeng Shan, Huazhong Wang and Xinyue Jiang
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Wenjing Ye: College of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 210016, China
Lili Wan: College of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 210016, China
Zhan Wang: College of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 210016, China
Wenhui Ye: School of Architecture, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China
Jinhui Chen: College of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 210016, China
Yangyang Lv: College of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 210016, China
Zhanpeng Shan: College of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 210016, China
Huazhong Wang: College of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 210016, China
Xinyue Jiang: College of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 210016, China

Sustainability, 2023, vol. 15, issue 21, 1-24

Abstract: As important nodes in the air transport system, it is of great significance for airports to achieve the carbon-peaking goal before 2030 under the target of peaking carbon emissions in China’s civil aviation industry. However, it remains unknown whether airports will be able to realize this ambitious goal due to a variety of uncertain factors, such as the social economy, epidemic impact, and emission reduction measures. According to the possibilities of uncertain factors, 12 uncertain scenarios were constructed. Using the case of Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport (CAN), this study predicted medium- and long-term carbon emission trends under 12 uncertain scenarios based on the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model. Furthermore, the effects of carbon abatement measures and emission reduction responsibilities were analyzed. The results show that CAN cannot guarantee that it will realize the goal under the established abatement policy. If socioeconomic development is rapid, carbon emissions will peak at about 90 kt tons in 2030, and if socioeconomic development is slow, it will plateau at about 1 million tons between 2030 and 2035. What is more, airlines bear the greatest responsibility for reducing emissions, and technological progress measures have the highest abatement potential. This study provides decision support for airport stakeholders in abatement work so as to ensure that airports can achieve the carbon-peaking goal.

Keywords: civil aviation; carbon emissions; carbon peaking; scenario analysis; Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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