A New Socio-Hydrology System Based on System Dynamics and a SWAT-MODFLOW Coupling Model for Solving Water Resource Management in Nanchang City, China

Zhihui Deng, Qingshan Ma (), Jia Zhang (), Qingda Feng, Zhaoxuan Niu, Guilin Zhu, Xianpeng Jin, Meijing Chen and Honghan Chen
Additional contact information
Zhihui Deng: Center for Hydrogeology and Environmental Geology Survey, China Geological Survey, Tianjin 300309, China
Qingshan Ma: Nanjing Center, China Geological Survey, Nanjing 210016, China
Jia Zhang: School of Water Resources and Environment, China University of Geosciences (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China
Qingda Feng: Center for Hydrogeology and Environmental Geology Survey, China Geological Survey, Tianjin 300309, China
Zhaoxuan Niu: Center for Hydrogeology and Environmental Geology Survey, China Geological Survey, Tianjin 300309, China
Guilin Zhu: Center for Hydrogeology and Environmental Geology Survey, China Geological Survey, Tianjin 300309, China
Xianpeng Jin: Center for Hydrogeology and Environmental Geology Survey, China Geological Survey, Tianjin 300309, China
Meijing Chen: Hebei Provincial Academy of Water Resources, Shijiazhuang 050011, China
Honghan Chen: School of Water Resources and Environment, China University of Geosciences (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China

Sustainability, 2023, vol. 15, issue 22, 1-22

Abstract: To address the issue of seasonal water resource shortages in Nanchang City, a multi-system coupling socio-hydrology simulation method was proposed. This approach involves dynamically integrating a centralized socio-economic model with a distributed surface water groundwater numerical model to explore the intricate relationships between the socio-economic system, the surface water–groundwater integrated system, and the outcomes related to seasonal water resource shortages. Taking Nanchang City as an example, this study conducted research on the water resource supply and demand balance, as well as the groundwater emergency supply, using the multi-system coupling model. Three scenarios were established: status quo, developing, and water-saving. The results show that with the increasing total water demand of social and economic development, the severity of the water resource shortage will be most pronounced in 2030. The minimum water resources supply and demand ratios for the status quo, developing, and water-saving scenarios are projected to be 0.68, 0.52, and 0.77, respectively. To meet residents’ water needs during drought conditions, emergency groundwater supply efforts are investigated. According to the simulation results, groundwater emergency supply would increase the total population by 24.0 thousand, 49.4 thousand, and 11.2 thousand people, respectively, in the status quo, developing, and water-saving scenarios. In the water-saving scenario, the Youkou and Xiebu water sources can serve as suitable emergency water sources. In the status quo scenario, the Youkou water source is the most viable emergency water source. However, in the developing scenario, relying solely on any single water source for emergency supply could have an irreversible impact on the aquifer. Therefore, considering the simultaneous use of multiple water sources is recommended, as it can fulfill water demands while ensuring the sustainable utilization of groundwater resources.

Keywords: socio-hydrology; system dynamics; SWAT-MODFLOW; coupling simulation; Nanchang City (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/22/16079/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/22/16079/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:22:p:16079-:d:1282824

Access Statistics for this article

Sustainability is currently edited by Ms. Alexandra Wu

More articles in Sustainability from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().