Environmental Damage of Different Waste Treatment Scenarios by Considering Avoided Emissions Based on System Dynamics Modeling

Ali Shahbazi, Mazaher Moeinaddini (), Mohammad Ali Abdoli, Mahnaz Hosseinzadeh, Neamatollah Jaafarzadeh and Rajib Sinha ()
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Ali Shahbazi: Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj 7787131587, Iran
Mazaher Moeinaddini: Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj 7787131587, Iran
Mohammad Ali Abdoli: Department of Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, Tehran 1417853111, Iran
Mahnaz Hosseinzadeh: Sheffield University Management School, The University of Sheffield, Sheffield S10 2TN, UK
Neamatollah Jaafarzadeh: Environmental Technologies Research Center, Ahvaz Jundishapur University of Medical Sciences, Ahvaz 6135715794, Iran
Rajib Sinha: Department of Sustainable Development, Environmental Science and Engineering (SEED), KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 10044 Stockholm, Sweden

Sustainability, 2023, vol. 15, issue 23, 1-22

Abstract: This study aims to develop a comprehensive model for life cycle assessment and environmental damage cost calculations considering avoided emissions in different waste management scenarios using the system dynamics (SD) approach. Our analysis reveals that under the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario for the period 2020–2050, the total net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reach 12.5 Mt, with the highest environmental damage cost being USD 689 million. In contrast, an integrated management strategy encompassing recycling, composting, anaerobic digestion, and incineration results in a 195% reduction in net GHG emissions compared to the BAU Scenario. Concurrently, the environmental damage cost drops to USD 277 million, incorporating USD 347 million in savings, leading to a net environmental damage cost of USD −71 million. The findings affirm that accounting for emissions avoided across various treatment methods offers a more accurate estimate of environmental damage costs. Additionally, policies centered on integrated waste management are more likely to achieve sustainability. The study also demonstrates the utility of the SD approach in providing a holistic view of waste management systems and in evaluating the effectiveness of various policy strategies for sustainable waste management.

Keywords: waste management scenarios; environmental saving; system dynamics approach; life cycle impact assessment method (LIME); environmental damage cost (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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