Dynamic Control of Flood Limited Water Levels for Parallel Reservoirs by Considering Forecast Period Uncertainty

Yanbin Li, Yubo Li, Kai Feng (), Kaiyuan Tian and Tongxuan Huang
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Yanbin Li: College of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450045, China
Yubo Li: College of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450045, China
Kai Feng: College of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450045, China
Kaiyuan Tian: College of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450045, China
Tongxuan Huang: College of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450045, China

Sustainability, 2023, vol. 15, issue 24, 1-22

Abstract: The objective of this study is to achieve the dynamic optimization of the flood limited water level (FLWL) in parallel reservoirs, using Luhun Reservoir and Guxian Reservoir as case studies. The innovation lies in establishing a dynamic control optimization model for the FLWL of parallel reservoirs, considering the uncertainty in the forecasting period of the flood forecast due to the varying locations of the rainstorm center from upstream to downstream. To commence, the Fisher optimal segmentation method is employed for flood season staging to determine the staged FLWL of each reservoir. Subsequently, considering the uncertainty in the foresight period, the upper range of the dynamic FLWL is determined through the improved pre-discharge capacity constraint method and Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, a multi-objective optimization model is established to determine the optimal dynamic FLWL control operation scheme for parallel reservoirs, utilizing the Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II). This model takes into account both downstream flood control requirements and the water supply benefits of the parallel reservoirs. Through the optimization of the scheme, the water supply of the parallel reservoirs can be augmented by 15,347.6 m 3 during the flood season. This optimization effectively achieves a harmonious balance between flood control and water supply, holding significant implications for mitigating drought risks amid changing conditions.

Keywords: flood limited water levels; optimization model; Yiluo River Basin; parallel reservoirs (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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